WNBA Picks
A 2-0 sweep in the WNBA last night extends the current run to 13-4 and +8 units since the beginning of June. Tuesday night has a doubleheader on deck, with the Chicago Sky hosting the Atlanta Dream, the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Dallas Wings in the game of the night, and Phoenix travels to Golden State. Let’s hope TSI stays dialed in, and we keep this momentum rolling. Here are the Tuesday projections from the T Shoe Index.
Chicago Sky (+7.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 164.5
Chicago is just 1-6 in their last seven games, losing by an average of 10 points per game during that stretch. Atlanta is 7-3 overall and has won three of its last four games by an average score of 89-75. Chicago has scored three more points per game at home than on the road; however, they’ve allowed nine more points per game to opponents. Atlanta has been much worse on the road than at home, scoring nine points per game fewer and allowing four more points per game defensively. TSI projects Atlanta -5 with a total of 165. I’m going to back Chicago here as all of my data aligns with this play. To add a cherry on top, home teams are 15-7 ATS in June.
Bet: Sky +7.5 (Play to +6.5)
Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 172
This is undoubtedly the marquee game of the evening, as two title contenders will clash with Commissioner’s Cup standings at stake in what is a great early-season test for both teams. Minnesota has won seven straight and hasn’t lost since May 17th, winning by an average of 19 points per game. Dallas has also won seven straight, winning by an average of 15 points per game, so something has to give here. Minnesota’s offense has been about the same at home as on the road, but they’ve given up four more points per game to opponents at home. Dallas has only failed to score 90 on the road one time, a game against Atlanta where they won 86-69. They do allow 11 points per game more on the road than at home, though. TSI projects Minnesota -6.5 with a total of 173. The home team trend applies here, too, which adds to my confidence in backing Minnesota.
Bet: Lynx -4.5 (Play to -5)
Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 162.5
Golden State lost both games on its recent road trip, which consisted of a couple of close battles with the Lynx and the Aces. Now, they’ll look to get right against a struggling Phoenix team at home. Phoenix has won back-to-back games against a couple of the worst teams in the league (Portland and Seattle) but lost six straight prior to that. Golden State has been 2 points better on offense and 3 points better on defense at home, while Phoenix scores 7.5 points per game fewer on the road but also allows a whopping 17 points per game fewer. TSI projects Valkyries -5.5 with a total of 163. I’ve got some conflicting data on this matchup, so I’m going to pass altogether.
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