Back in April, I reviewed the early NASCAR season nine-race results against my race simulations and was thrilled about the results. I was not surprised, mind you, as I was having good success with my wagering, but I’m not sure I even realized the improvements my projections were showing over the prior season. At the time, I theorized that having a full season of Next Gen car stats under our belt would naturally positively affect the simulations. That theory has proved to be accurate, and the positive results have continued over the last 12 races.
That leads me to an update on the 2023 season so far, and I can proudly proclaim that this has been the best season I’ve enjoyed in NASCAR betting using my simulations in recent memory. The results on To Win, Top 3s, Top 5s, and matchups have all been solid so far. I’m here to share some of those results with you and get you excited for betting the rest of the season, starting with a typically highly predictable Cook Out 400 race at Richmond on Sunday.
The first thing I want to share with you that is compared to last year, using what I call my “handicap stats,” which only take into account driver stats when they finish 95% or more of the laps in a race, the projections by Driver Rating are about 16.7% better than usual, while the projections by Average Simulation Finish position are 13.5% improved. I’m not sure about you, but improving my own betting results by percentages like this can often make the difference in winning and losing. Here is the average margin between my projection and the actual finish for all drivers in all nine races.
