Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s NCAA Championship game…
9:20 p,m. ET: San Diego State vs Connecticut (-7.5, 132.5)
This game will be played at NRG Stadium, home of the Houston Texans. San Diego State (32-6) just beat FAU 72-71 on a Final Four buzzer beater but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Connecticut (30-8) just brushed aside Miami 72-59, cruising as 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite. Some books even opened UConn -6.5. Pros have laid the chalk, steaming the Huskies up to -7.5. Currently 75% of bets and 81% of money is backing UConn, signaling both public and sharp support. Ken Pom has UConn winning by five points (69-64). The next line move will be critical. If we see this line rise to -8, it will be further evidence of UConn support. But if it drops down to -7 that will indicate late money breaking San Diego State’s way. Favorites are 10-7 ATS in the NCAA Championship game over the past 17 seasons. San Diego State has value as a contrarian play (only receiving 19% of bets) in a heavily bet primetime game.
We’ve also seen this total rise from 130.5 to 132.5. Now that the total has risen two points, there could be a buy-low inflated under opportunity for value-driven bettors, The under is receiving only 19% of bets but 59% of money, a sharp contrarian discrepancy. The under is 11-6 in the last 17 title games. Both teams rank in the top 8 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Both teams are also slow in terms of tempo, averaging roughly 66 possessions per game.
