Week 9 College Football: Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State

The weeknight Conference USA spotlight is bright again this week. After two games on Tuesday, the conference has center stage for two games on Wednesday. Conference favorite Liberty is on the road against Kennesaw State and top contender Jacksonville State hosts Middle Tennessee.

The Flames have played too many close games for comfort this season, but we aren’t expected to have too much drama on Wednesday with a couple of 20-point favorites, but it’s college football, so you never really know. Let’s check out my favorite play between the two games and then look at the other one.

 

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For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 9 Hub.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-21, 63.5)

7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

The later of the two games is the one with a better cable slot, as Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State will be shown on ESPN2, while the other game goes to CBS Sports Network.

This game appears to be every bit the mismatch that the line implies. Jacksonville State is 15th in yards per play going into this week and they’ve done even better in league play, racking up 7.6 yards per play in two Conference USA games. To their credit, though, the Blue Raiders have over six yards per play in three conference games after suffering through a non-conference schedule of Tennessee Tech, Ole Miss, Duke, and Memphis.

Their numbers are skewed a bit by the tough non-conference schedule, which virtually no other team in the conference can match except UTEP. The Miners and Blue Raiders are the only teams in this conference to play top-100 schedules thus far.

As a result, MTSU is 127th in yards per play allowed on defense at 6.69, but the Gamecocks haven’t played a good slate of opponents and they are still below the national average. The key difference, though, is that Jacksonville State has allowed 4.8 YPP in conference action and MTSU has allowed over 6.8. This is one area where MTSU’s defensive stats are not misleading like their offensive ones might be. They did allow nine yards per play to Ole Miss, but have still allowed 6.9 YPP overall against FBS competition.

So, Jacksonville State should move the ball effectively and do so with true dual-threat QB Tyler Huff, who has accumulated nearly 1,800 total yards and 13 touchdowns. MTSU already has two pass catchers with over 30 receptions, as Nicholas Vattiato ranks in the top 25 in pass attempts and completions.

The Blue Raiders have tried to be balanced, but they have 2.7 yards per carry on 203 attempts, so maybe they shouldn’t bother. That said, sacks count against rushing totals and Vattiato has been sacked 21 times already. The Gamecocks only have two sacks in three conference games, so they don’t get after the QB very well. That explains why the defense has been so pedestrian.

My line here is 23.5, so a lean towards Jacksonville State, but I think we get a lot of points in this game. MTSU probably won’t keep Jacksonville State from getting into the 40s. Hell, a terrible LA Tech team got there two weeks ago. The Gamecocks defense is not great and MTSU has moved the ball effectively in conference play so far.

Pick: Over 63.5

Other Wednesday Game

Liberty Flames (-24, 46.5) at Kennesaw State Owls: This is a line that would have easily been in the 30s if Liberty was playing up to expectations this season. The Flames are undefeated, but they’ve had close wins over terrible teams like New Mexico State and FIU. Kennesaw State is the lowest power-rated team in the nation for just about everybody, but this line is only 24. Against other bad teams, Liberty was -23.5 at home against UTEP and -22.5 on the road against New Mexico State.

For Kennesaw State to be at the bottom of everybody’s list, this line feels like it should be bigger. I have no bet here at all, as Liberty hasn’t beaten any team by more than 18 points this season, but winless Kennesaw State could be the one.

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