UFC Tampa Predictions – Covington vs. Buckley:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Tampa best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
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Article History: 113-165 (-27.54 Units, -8.94% ROI)
Since 2020: 665-629 (+189.61 Units, 10.93% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 8-6 (57.14%)
Article History: 247-180 (57.85%)
Colby “Chaos” Covington (+195) vs Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley (-238)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+100)
Colby Covington is one of the most polarizing fighters in the UFC. Fans either hate him or love him, and there is nothing in between. He is one of the more entertaining trash talkers in the organization, but his game inside the cage is generally less exciting. Lots of pressure, not much power. Tons of wrestling but very little submissions. He is also now 36 years old and not very active. He generally only joins fight cards for the marquee position, and the final main event of the year in his home state of Florida fits the bill. Colby Covington has fought exactly one time in each of the last four years. This marks his first trip to the cage in 2024. He is 2-3 in his last three fights, with all three losses coming in title fights. His wins have come against over-the-hill fighters in Tyron Woodley and Jorge Masvidal. A unique twist is that in this bout, he will clearly be the fighter fighting to stay in the mix.
Joaquin Buckley is as exciting as they come in this division. He is 30 years old and already 10-4 in the UFC. His activity level is the complete opposite of Covington. Buckley made his UFC debut in 2020. He is currently on a five-fight winning streak after moving down to welterweight from middleweight. He has wasted no time in the division, knocking off veterans like Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque, and Alex Morono. Buckley has begun employing wrestling in his recent fights, but it is yet to be seen if his grappling ability will hold up compared to that of a pedigreed wrestler like Colby Covington. One element of his game that is universal is his power; seven of his 10 UFC wins have come via knockout.
Neither fighter is an accurate striker, and despite Covington being known for his aggression, he actually lands fewer strikes per minute than Buckley. Additionally, Buckley’s defense right is slightly better than Covington’s. This fight is Buckley’s first main event in the UFC and his first five-round fight. The length of this bout is definitely something Covington will try to weaponize because Buckley’s 25-minute cardio is untested. That said, Buckley has risen to every challenge as a 170-pounder. As long as he doesn’t ego-grapple with Covington, he can win this fight on his feet going away.
FIGHT WINNER: Joaquin Buckley
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Parlay piece, see below
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Cub “Killer” Swanson (+130) vs Billy Quarantillo (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Cub Swanson is 41 years old but still has gas in the tank. He lost a close split decision in his last fight versus Andre Fili, but prior to that, he knocked off Hakeem Dawodo. He has alternated wins and losses in his last six fights and is 14-10 overall. At his best, Cub is a dangerous striker who does best when he doesn’t have to face elite grapplers. Like most fighters who have lasted this long in the fight game, his striking defense rate outpaces his offense. He probably does not have the KO power he once did, but he still can land volume when facing the right dance partner.
In his prime, Billy Q was a fun fighter to watch, and he brought action every time he entered the cage. Like Cub Swanson, he is no longer in his prime. Now, at age 36, he is over the hill in MMA terms, and I do not believe his peak was anywhere near Cub’s. Like his opponent, he is coming off a loss and has traded wins and losses lately, alternating results in his last eight bouts. The real issue with Billy Q is that his striking defense is atrocious at just 43%, meaning 57% of the strikes his opponent’s launch ultimately land.
I think this is a good spot for Cub. As long as he doesn’t gas, Billy Q should not be able to find a KO, and in a pure striking match, I still give Cub the edge, even at his advanced age.
FIGHT WINNER: Cub Swanson
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Cub Swanson (+130) vs Quarantillo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
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Manel “Starboy” Kape (-395) vs Bruno Silva (+310)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Manel Kape has a 4-3 UFC record and has won four of his last five fights. We last saw him losing an extremely boring decision to Muhammad Mokaev. However, that fight had too many outside-of-the-cage antics to take seriously. He is a dangerous striker in the flyweight division; 11 of his 19 professional wins have come via KO, including a win in the Rizin Championship versus last week’s title contender, Kai Asakura. Bruno Silva is on a four-fight win streak, with all four wins coming inside the distance. He began his career in the UFC with a record of 0-2 with one no contest, so he definitely turned a corner when his career was on the line.
Kape will have a three-inch reach advantage despite only being one inch the taller fighter. On paper, Kape is a more accurate striker, but Silva gets hit with around one less significant strike per minute. Both fighters are capable of employing takedowns, but Silva employs this tactic much more often. Five of Kape’s seven trips to the cage have gone the distance, and Silva has only seen the scorecards twice in his seven trips to the cage. Neither of these fighters has a truly elite win, but I do trust Kape to stay safe versus a dangerous opponent and use his experience to navigate to a victory.
FIGHT WINNER: Manel Kape
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Pass
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Dustin Jacoby (+235) vs Vitor Petrino (-290)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+154)
Dustin Jacoby has fallen on hard times, with just one win in his last five fights. This skid comes on the heels of a six-fight unbeaten streak. It would be easy to assume the 36-year-old hit a wall, but the skid probably has more to do with the fact that he has been facing very tough competition lately. The former kickboxer is a good striker and has shined in the clinch at times. He was brutally knocked out by Dominick Reyes in June, and it is yet to be seen how he will recover from the damage.
Vitor Petrino is 11-1, with his first loss coming in his last fight versus Anthony Smith. The veteran was able to stuff a takedown from Petrino and sink in a guillotine two minutes into the first round. Overall, Petrino leads with his wrestling, and it was his undoing in his last fight. Jacoby’s ground game is nowhere near Anthony Smith’s, and his takedown defense rate is just 60%. Look for Petrino to chase the takedown from the opening bell and not deviate from the game plan.
FiGHT WINNER: Vitor Petrino
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Parlay: Vitor Petrino/Joaquin Buckley (-109), Risk 1.09 Units to Win 1
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Daniel Marcos (-225) vs Adrian Yanez (+185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Daniel Marcos is 16-0 and 3-0 in the UFC and has an additional trip to the cage that resulted in a no contest due to illegal groin strikes. He has fought some veterans but not quite any high-level contenders. He is a very active striker, landing nearly six significant strikes per minute while avoiding an impressive 63% of the attacks dished back his way. He rarely attempts to grapple and has a solid 87% takedown defense rate. Before joining the UFC, he fought a suspect schedule in no-name organizations. He has fared well versus UFC competition, so there is no need to pick apart his pedigree.
Adrian Yanez was one of the hottest names in the featherweight division, beginning his career in the organization with a 5-0 record and four knockout victories. However, when he started facing ranked opposition (Rob Font, Jonathan Martinez), he was the one receiving the knockouts, not dishing them out. He recovered versus Vinicius Salvador and got back to his finishing ways as a big favorite. This opponent has excellent striking defense, so finding a home for his power shots could be tough. Still, Yanez’s experience and power edge are too much to overlook at this price, and his KO prop at nearly 5/1 could be worth a shot.
FIGHT WINNER: Adrian Yanez
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Adrian Yanez (+185) vs Marcos, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
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Navajo Stirling (-800) vs Tuco Tokkos (+550)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+110)
Navajo Stirling is one of the greenest fighters on this card, with just five professional fights (including one in Contender Series). He is 5-0, with his most recent four victories coming via knockout. Additionally, he is a City Kickboxing product, so his coaching pedigree is top-tier. He has a background in kickboxing and put his striking prowess on display in his Contender Series fight, landing 68% of his significant strikes while avoiding over half of those coming back his way. He also avoided both of his opponent’s takedown attempts. That said, these types of prices with prospects with such short fight histories are generally a scary proposition.
Tuco Tokkos has been a prospect for a long time. He is 10-4, with all four losses coming in major MMA organizations. After starting his career 4-0, he was given two shots in Bellator, failing to get his arm raised in both attempts. He also fought in Road to UFC and had the unfortunate experience of being paired with power puncher Mingyang Zhang, who got the first-round knockout. In May, he was given a shot as a short-notice opponent for Oumar Sy, and he was submitted in the first round. At this point, Tokkos needs to make something happen because he has gotten more shots at big-time MMA than most prospects could ever dream of.
FIGHT WINNER: Navajo Stirling
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Pass
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Michael Johnson (-218) vs Ottman Azaitar (+180)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+110)
At 38 years old and with 29 octagon walks, Michael Johnson is not short on UFC experience. But his record in the organization is just 14-15, and he is just 3-6 dating back to 2019, and 6-11 since August of 2015. He is coming off a win and has won three of his last five fights. But all three of those opponents are no longer in the organization. Michael Johnson had all the potential in the world, but that ended literally a decade ago. He is still dangerous, he has skills and a veteran savvy, but it may be fair to ask how dedicated to the fight game he is after all these years of ups and downs.
Ottman Azaitar is 13-2, and 2-2 in the UFC. His losses came in his last two fights, KO losses to Matt Frevola and Francisco Prado. He lives and dies by the power punches. Nine of his wins have come due to strikes, with three via submission. He is nearly 35 years old, so he is by no means a young and fresh fighter. He has never been taken down in the UFC, but has been knocked down twice while scoring just one. When compared to Michael Johnson’s 11:3 ratio, it seems that getting in a brawl is not in his best interest, but he does not have many other paths to victory.
FIGHT WINNER: Michael Johnson
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Pass
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Drakkar Klose (+340) vs Joel Alvarez (-440)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
Drakkar Klose is a veteran with a solid 9-2 UFC record, which is perhaps a little bit too well-curated for my liking. He has been around forever; he has multiple win streaks in the organization but rarely takes a step up in competition. Klose has been the underdog just once in his last seven fights, which ultimately was a KO loss to Beneil Dariush in 2020. He is on a six-fight win streak, and his fight metrics speak to his well-rounded game, 55% significant strike accuracy with a 51% defense rate. He lands 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, and avoids 69% of those attempted by his opponents. At age 36, he is in a now-or-never situation if he wants to climb into the rankings.
Joel Alvarez is a very exciting fighter who is 20-3 as a pro with a 100% finish rate in his wins. He lost his UFC debut via decision, and in 2022, he was brutally knocked out by Arman Tsarukyan, but outside of that, he has been an absolute terror. In August, he was the first man to finish Chute Boxe’s Elves Brenner. Seventeen of his wins have come via submission, and four are coming via knockout. Three of those knockouts have come in the UFC, indicating that his game is evolving.
FIGHT WINNER: Joel Alvarez
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Joel Alvarez to win inside the distance (-140), Risk 1.4 Units to Win 1
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Sean “Sniper” Woodson (-148) vs Fernando Padilla (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-245) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+185)
Sean Woodson is a physical anomaly in the 145-pound featherweight division. He is 6’2” with a 78-inch reach, and he uses every bit of it. He is a volume striker who takes advantage of his range advantage. Overall, he is 12-1-1 and 6-1-1 in the UFC. He has proven adaptable, avoiding takedowns from grapplers and out-pointing strikers. He is a significant strike machine, landing 70+ in his last four fights (and 50 on his way to first-round knockout five fights ago). He maintains distance and avoids 84% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. He only has one knockout victory in the UFC, but he still is a fun fighter to watch with his completely outlier physique.
Fernando Padilla is 16-5 as a pro and 2-1 in the UFC. He is 6’1” with a 76” and is usually the rangier fighter, so this will be a unique test. Both of his UFC wins are via finish, and he is 1-0 as a betting underdog. He has wasted no time establishing his style in the UFC, landing 6.48 significant strikes per minute while maintaining a 100% takedown defense rate, meaning this fight figures to be a striker’s delight.
FIGHT WINNER: Sean Woodson
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Sean Woodson (-148) vs Padilla, Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1
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Miles Johns (+210) vs Felipe Lima (-258)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)
Miles Johns is making his featherweight debut in the UFC after putting together a 6-2, 1 NC record as a bantamweight. He was scheduled to fight Cody Garbrandt twice this year, but both fights fell through, so he is taking this fight against a dangerous prospect. Johnson has two finishes in the UFC via KO and four wins via decision. He has been knocked out and submitted in his two losses. He is unbeaten in his last four fights. His striking defense shines, and his 85% takedown defense rate also sticks out.
Felipe Lima is 1-0 in the UFC after submitting the tough Mohammed Naimov in his UFC debut. He could skip Contender Series and go right to the big show and did not waste the opportunity. As a pro, the 26-year-old is 13-1, with the loss coming in his professional debut when he was a 17-year-old fighting a man in his 20s. He showed a well-rounded game in his debut but Miles Johns is no easy out. This fight will be a true test despite him being the bigger man.
FIGHT WINNER: Miles Johns
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Pass
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Miranda Maverick (-625) vs Jamey-Lyn Horth (+455)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-520) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+350)
Miranda Maverick is 7-3 in the UFC and on a three-fight win streak. All three of her UFC losses are to high-level women’s flyweights: Erin Blanchfield, Maycee Barber, and Jasmine Jasudavicious. She is a powerful wrestler and excels when she can dominate her opponents on the mat. This is a bad indicator for Jamey-Lyn Horth, who has been taken down in all three of her UFC fights (2-1 record). Maverick is seven years younger and has a much higher ceiling. This fight likely goes all the way, and neither fighter has ever been finished. On pape,r Horth is the slightly better striker but has faced much worse competition.
FIGHT WINNER: Miranda Maverick
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Jamey-Lyn Horth Over 0.5 Takedowns (+130) vs Maverick, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1
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Davey Grant (-115) vs Ramon Taveras (-105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
Davey Grant is always a tough out despite being 6-6 in the UFC. Two of his losses have come via split decision, so he is just a few exchanges away from having a record that looks vastly different. Both of those split decision losses have come as a heavy underdog. He is 3-1 as a betting favorite. Ramon Taveras is 10-2 as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC. His loss came in Contender Series, and he avenged that loss in his UFC debut via split decision. Four of his last five victories have come inside the distance, and five of his pro wins have come via KO. He has three submissions, and if history is to be trusted, that is his best path towards finishing Davey Grant, who has never been knocked out. Taveras is 30 years old while Grant is 38, which heavily favors the underdog in this bantamweight fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Ramon Taveras
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Pass
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Piera Rodriguez (+215) vs Josefine Knutsson (-265)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-520) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+350)
Piera Rodriguez was 7-0 when she came to the UFC, but is now 9-2 and on a two-fight losing streak. Most recently, she was DQ’d as a -225 favorite due to multiple intentional headbutts, which is a bit crazy, considering she was dominating the fight before the headbutts. Josephine Knutsen is 8-0 with a 2-0 UFC record. She has been a big favorite in both wins and has just one career victory inside the distance. Both women like to engage in the takedown game, and both are good with top position. Rodriguez is a wildcard, but I think she has a shot due to a tougher strength of schedule and an edge in experience.
FIGHT WINNER: Piera Rodriguez
UFC TAMPA BEST BET: Piera Rodriguez (+215), vs Knutssen, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
UFC TAMPA BEST BETS RECAP
– Cub Swanson (+130) vs. Quarantillo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
– Parlay: Vitor Petrino/Joaquin Buckley (-109), Risk 1.09 Units to Win 1
– Adrian Yanez (+185) vs. Marcos, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
– Joel Alvarez to win inside the distance (-140), Risk 1.4 Units to Win 1
– Sean Woodson (-148) vs. Padilla, Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1
– Jamey-Lyn Horth Over 0.5 Takedowns (+130) vs. Maverick, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1
– Piera Rodriguez (+215), vs. Knutssen, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15
