UFC Predictions for Fight Night – Brady vs. Burns:
After a week away, the UFC returns to Las Vegas for two events—this week at its APEX center and then next week at T-Mobile Arena. The world will experience UFC Noche, an extravaganza held in the new Las Vegas Sphere and headlined with two world championship bouts. Let’s look at this week’s UFC predictions.
Digital results after the first eight months of the year stand 21-17 +9.28u, which is a solid return considering that favorites this year in the UFC are winning at a 67.3% clip.
This week there are thirteen scheduled bouts for the smaller cage at the APEX. Three of the fights happen at 170lbs and above so hopefully we’ll get to witness violence from the many smaller-bodied combatants!
Sean Brady -185 vs. Gilburt Burns +155
Welterweight (170 pounds) main event
Two gifted grapplers will meet in the middle of the octagon on Saturday. Rather than grope, grapple, and grind, these two will compete, at least for a time, on the feet. There, Burns possesses the more developed striking, while Brady has a believer’s confidence in his.
Brady will strive from the opening bell to drive this battle to the mat. On the ground, this fight figures to be fascinating for Brady, the American, is an accomplished black belt in BJJ with Muay Thai skills and will be the slightly larger man. Burns, the Brazilian, is a third-degree black belt with developed striking diversity and power. That said, he did spend much of his career at 155 pounds.
On the ground, this fight can be fascinating because watching the different dialects of BJJ compete at an elite level would be a treat, one I would love to witness, especially with the larger men.
However, that type of high-output, sustained effort is an approach that may well favor the younger athlete because of the enormous amount of energy needed to employ such a tactic for fifteen minutes, let alone twenty-five.
Fighters who are seven years younger or more than their opponents win roughly 65% of the time in the UFC. Because of this, I believe Brady will hold the advantage.
Burns will look crisp, sharp, and effective early, but he must be able to sustain it. The constant forward pace/grind/pressure from Brady will be forced on Burns in an attempt to both negate his offense and tax the 38-year-old warrior of his cardio. Then, over the course of the championship rounds, he will begin to display his advantage in this fight— his youth and his ability to compete for a full five rounds.
This fight opened as a dead pick ’em, so I’ll watch how this line moves through the week and make any decision once the price stabilizes.
Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -180
This fight may well end up at 4.5 Rds. so I’ll jump the Over 3.5 -180 and use it as the second leg of a parlay. (see below).
Natalia Silva -300 vs. Jessica Andrade +250
Women’s flyweight (125 pounds) co-main event
Brazilian athlete and former champion in the UFC, Jessica Andrade is a storied mixed martial artist who has competed effectively for championships at two different UFC weight classes.
She’s competed against the elite of two divisions for twenty-seven fights spanning eleven years, so her resume is complete, yet she hungers to continue to be active.
Andrade has found herself toiling in recent personal issues that mandate she stay busy and earn to help work her way back into financial stability. This is why she has been taking as many fights so close together as we have witnessed over the last several months.
Andrade’s surely a future hall of fame UFC athlete, but in 2024 and now 32 years old, her skills, particularly her speed, quickness and footwork have waned. It’s unfortunate as Andrade is undersized for flyweight and has been used to being the more fleet, skilled, athletic fighter in the cage. That will not be the case this Saturday.
In this matchup, Andrade is faced with a future star in Natalia Silva, a Brazilian mixed martial artist with refined striking and grappling skills, tremendous speed, and huge momentum.
While Silva is stepping up in class of opponent, she’ll be three inches taller with the same amount of reach advantage. Silva is five years younger than Andrade.
Silva’s youth, as with Sean Brady, will be the assets both athletes rely upon to try to get their hands raised this weekend.
When the bell to round one rings, we’ll witness Silva’s advantages of speed, quickness and footwork are tangible and real. Those skills will guide her through this fight, provided she has the cardio and level-headedness to maintain her distance and composure from the incoming raging fury of Andrade.
Silva must keep Andrade at the end of her strikes and blister the former champion with precision strikes, kicks knees and elbows as she tries to enter the pocket.
Speed kills.
UFC Best Bet: Silva -300 parlay to ‘Over 3.5 Rounds -180 Burns/Brady.’
1 unit invested returns 1.07 units.
GambLou.com ‘Bout Business Podcast drops mid-day Friday. My final releases for this fight card can only be found there!
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!
