VSiN Analytics Report for Week 12
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 12. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
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Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, INDIANAPOLIS, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, LAS VEGAS, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the 2023 season, I’m still leaving this system on as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports, if 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade ’em.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, NEW ORLEANS, BALTIMORE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors have been absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 52-84 ATS (38.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, ATLANTA, ARIZONA, LAS VEGAS, MINNESOTA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 55-78 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, NEW ORLEANS, LA RAMS, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority handle and number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 58-75 ATS (43.6%) & 56-76 ATS (42.4%) respectively. Both remain losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, BALTIMORE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) and 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is proving to be another situation where going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, ATLANTA, ARIZONA, DENVER, LAS VEGAS, BUFFALO
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 45-29 ATS (60.8%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 35-22 (61.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-CIN, CAR-TEN, CLE-DEN, KC-LVR, CHI-MIN
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in 2022 & 2023 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): JAX-HOU, TB-IND, NO-ATL, BUF-PHI
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NO-ATL, BUF-PHI
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 123-138-7 ATS (47.1%), These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE ARIZONA
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 167-187-9 ATS (47.2%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE ARIZONA, FADE INDIANAPOLIS
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 141-155-10 ATS (47.6%) in that situation.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE INDIANAPOLIS
Re-Tread Coach Systems
Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in home games – 81-122-1 ATS (39.9%).
System Match: FADE DENVER
Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2013. They’ve gone 89-66 SU but just 49-93-13 ATS, for 34.5%!
System Match: FADE DENVER
Digging deeper into the two trends described just above, as home favorites, re-tread coaches have gone just 57-41 SU and 29-63-6 ATS (31.5%) in their first seasons over the last decade.
System Match: FADE DENVER
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 96-134-9 ATS (41.7%).
System Match: FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
