2023-24 NFL Season Washington Commanders Review

Tuesday began our series of deep dives into teams who underachieved in 2023 relative to preseason projections. Today, our disappointing team of the day is the Washington Commanders, who finished the season ranked dead last in the NFL in the T Shoe Index ratings)

The Commanders were dreadful in pretty much every sense of the word; finishing with a 4-13 record and, more importantly to us, a 6-10 record ATS. I’m not sure why Washington was ever laying points against anyone above a decent middle school team, but they were 0-4 ATS in 2023 when favored.

 

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Above, you’ll see the Commanders’ TSI rating as it fluctuated throughout the season. Coming off of 2022, the Commanders didn’t have high expectations for 2023, as you can see by their 2-points-below-average power rating in the preseason; but, holy cow. TSI couldn’t downgrade them quickly enough, as you can see the (nearly perfectly linear) steep decline over the course of the season.

Commanders Offense

Sam Howell started all 17 games at QB for the Commanders, with 21 touchdowns and 21 interceptions, resulting in a 78.9 passer rating. Not great, Bob. Washington did manage to see an uptick in its points per game year-over-year, from 18.9 in 2022 to 19.4, as they did manage to get themselves into some shootouts that sailed over the O/U – the over went 10-7 in Commanders games last year. 

Some key stats that were indicative of Washington’s abysmal 2023 included being 25th in the NFL in EPA per play (same as 2022), 18th in offensive success rate (up from 26th) and 26th in EPA per dropback (up from 24th).

Commanders Defense

The primary culprit for the season was on the defensive side of the ball, where Washington’s points per game allowed skyrocketed 10 points, from 20 points per game in 2022 to 30 points per game in 2023, which also explains their profitable 10-7 trend to the over. 

Defensively, they were dead last in EPA per play (down from 5th in 2022) and 28th in defensive success rate (way down from 1st in 2022) and dead last in EPA per dropback (down from 9th in 2022).

Commanders 2024 Outlook

Their 2024 win total currently sits at 6.5, with the Over being juiced to -120. In Dan Quinn’s first year as head coach, I would anticipate some improvement from this team. Is a coaching change going to be worth three full wins in one season? 

I’m probably more in “see it before I believe it” mode, so I wouldn’t really want to bet an over on this 6.5. I’d lean Under, but it’s probably a stay away until we see what the Quinn era looks like on the field. Sometime this summer, I will put out my T Shoe Index NFL guide, which will include projections on every game this season and full season win totals for each team, so be on the lookout for that.

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