Week 3 NFL Predictions:

It may be the Year of the Dragon according to the Chinese Zodiac, but it is very clearly the Year of the Underdog in the NFL. Dogs are not only barking, but they are also biting. Pups of 6+ points are off to an 8-0 ATS start and they’ve also won four of those games outright, plus we had the Falcons at +5.5 take down the Eagles in a battle of the birds on Monday Night Football.

More often than not, regression to the mean comes for these types of small sample size trends. Will it happen this week? We’ll have to wait and see, but the betting public is getting crushed thus far. So are Survivor players. It seems like the only people with smiles on their faces are the bookmakers.

 

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Here are my Week 3 NFL best bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9/17, 3:45 p.m. PT

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 43.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

You will see a lot of stats about 0-2 and 0-3 teams this week. Teams that go 0-3 almost never make the playoffs and so there are a lot of desperate squads. The Colts certainly qualify as one of them, as they’ll head back to Lucas Oil Stadium to host the Bears. Indy lost at home to Houston in Week 1, but that loss paled in comparison to losing to Malik Willis last week at Lambeau Field.

While the Colts are 0-2, they don’t look like an 0-2 team on the stat sheet. Yes, I fully grant that Anthony Richardson’s obscene throw to Alec Pierce in Week 1 has skewed the numbers, but Indy ranks third with 6.7 yards per play and has outgained the opposition by over a yards per play. If we want to get really technical about it – and, by the way, big plays are just a reality of the game, the Colts have 6.11 yards per play if you take away the Richardson bomb. That’s still right around the top five in the league.

Richardson hasn’t been super accurate and hasn’t taken good care of the football. All of those things are true. However, the Bears have three yards per play with Caleb Williams at the helm and they are very unlikely to hold the ball for over 40 minutes like the Packers did last week. The Bears have been outgained by over 100 yards twice.

I’ll take a shot with a Colts team that has played better in most cases than what their early-season results show.

Pick: Colts -1

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 46.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Sunday Night Football features the Chiefs and Falcons and the potential for points. Kansas City will miss Isiah Pacheco in a lot of ways, but I trust Andy Reid and OC Matt Nagy to figure it out. Let’s be honest, as good as Pacheco is, having the ball in Patrick Mahomes’ hands more often can’t be a bad thing. We’ll probably see more Rashee Rice or Xavier Worthy in the running game with some jet sweeps or other gadget plays.

We could also see more cracks at going vertical. I think Carson Steele or Samaje Perine could be short-yardage backs, but I would guess that Reid and Nagy look to stay on schedule with the pass. That creates the possibility for some more explosives. The Falcons defense has certainly played well, but the Eagles got Kellen Moore’d and the Steelers stink on offense.

On the Atlanta side, Kirk Cousins seemed just fine leading that game-winning drive, but I’m looking more at their run game here. The Chiefs were 28th in Rush EPA defense last season and 16th in 2022. Through two games this season, they are 29th. I just don’t think they’re very focused on stopping the run given their competition in the AFC and the quarterbacks that they need to beat.

The Falcons should be able to find some success in the ground game, which should open up a little play-action for Cousins on the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Gimme some points on SNF.

Pick: Chiefs/Falcons Over 46.5

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