Week 14 College Football: Memphis vs. Tulane

Thanksgiving is traditionally reserved for the NFL, but we’ve got a very interesting college football game on Thursday night that could have some College Football Playoff impact. Memphis and Tulane square off in the only game of the night, as Tulane would be next in line as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion by running the table.

The Green Wave need help from either Oregon State this week or probably UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game, but the possibility is there and that makes this a big game on Thanksgiving Night.

 

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Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave (-14, 56.5)

7:30 p.m. ET

The most interesting thing about this game is the College Football Playoff implications for Tulane, but the second-most interesting thing is the line. Tulane is -14 or higher against a Memphis team that is 9-2 on the season. Both teams have the same record, though both of Tulane’s losses came against major-conference opponents, while the Tigers have dropped a couple in AAC play.

Memphis came up short against Navy and UTSA earlier this season, giving up 100 combined points in those games. Both of those games were on the road as well, much like this one down in New Orleans. It is still a bit jarring to see two 9-2 teams with such a huge gap in the ratings, but that’s what we have.

This is Tulane’s biggest favorite role against Memphis since 1998 when the Green Wave closed 16-point favorites and won by 10. The next closest is 2011 when Tulane was -12.5 and lost outright.

I feel like Tulane has flown under the radar a lot because of the early losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma. All they’ve done is rank in the top 20 in yards per play on offense and top 30 on defense. Memphis is a step up compared to most AAC teams, but they are +1.85 yards per play in conference games. The Tigers, meanwhile, are just +0.06 YPP in conference games, averaging 6.28 on offense and 6.22 on defense.

Tulane is 10th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 17 points per game. Memphis is actually 45th, but that’s because they are just nine points per game in non-conference, but have given up over 30 in league play.

So that’s how you get a 14-point spread with two teams that have identical records. They’ve taken different paths to that point. But, I like Memphis here. Tulane’s padded the numbers against UAB, Charlotte, and Temple. Memphis at least has the offense to challenge them and keep it close. 

The Tigers have averaged five yards per carry and Seth Henigan has a 21/6 TD/INT ratio. Henigan has better numbers than Darian Mensah, due in some capacity to game state, but Tulane is a play-from-in-front, run-heavy team. If they do have to throw more here, I’ll be curious to see how it goes.

Pick: Memphis +14

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