Week 5 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

Let’s take a look at my Week 5 college football best bets:

 

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Fresno State at UNLV (-2)

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (FS1)

It’s tough to steal the spotlight from a Georgia-Alabama game, yet UNLV was the hottest topic in college football for a couple of days this week. The Rebels were embroiled in controversy after starting quarterback Matthew Sluka abruptly left the team amid a financial dispute. Sluka, a grad transfer from Holy Cross, said he was verbally offered $100,000 in the spring by a UNLV assistant coach and had received only $3,000. There’s much more to a complicated story with more than two sides, but the bottom line is a 3-0 team in the playoff hunt is now breaking in a new quarterback.

After the Sluka news broke, the line at DraftKings moved from UNLV -3 to Fresno State -1.5. The overreaction in the betting market eventually stabilized and favored status flipped back to the Rebels, who will start Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams with senior Cameron Friel as the backup. UNLV coach Barry Odom said Wednesday’s practice was his team’s best of the season, and it appears the quarterback switch will be a rallying point for the Rebels.

Sluka was no superstar. He completed only 21 of 48 passes (43.8 percent) for 318 yards in three games — passing for fewer than 100 yards in wins at Houston and Kansas — but was the team’s leading rusher with 253 yards. Williams is also a talented runner and could prove to be a better passer who’s capable of getting star receiver Ricky White more involved in the offense.

Little is being said about Fresno State, which has won three in a row after a season-opening 30-10 loss at Michigan. Bulldogs quarterback Mikey Keene might end up being the most important player in the game, but a strong UNLV defense that’s allowing 13.7 ppg will make Keene work for everything he gets.

Odom, 12-5 in his second year with the Rebels, has made defense the foundation for turning around the program. UNLV will be playing with more emotion as the team seems motivated to prove it can win without Sluka. In what has become one of the most intriguing games of the week, I’m expecting the Rebels to deliver the cash, pun intended.

Week 5 College Football Best Bet: UNLV -2

Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-5)

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The scoreboard showed Kansas State on the wrong end of a 38-9 blowout at BYU last week. The box score told a different story. The Wildcats rushed for 228 yards and finished with a 367-241 advantage in total yards against the Cougars, who scored on a 30-yard fumble return and a 90-yard punt return. Kansas State sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson unraveled under pressure and threw two costly interceptions. Johnson was on the road in a hostile atmosphere against a tough defense, but now he’s back home where he led the way in a 31-7 victory over Arizona two weeks ago.

Also off of a loss is Oklahoma State, which was outgained 456-285 by a Utah team playing its backup quarterback. The Cowboys’ Alan Bowman threw two interceptions, and star running back Ollie Gordon II was held to 42 yards on 11 carries. There is more to like about Kansas State, which should bounce back behind the better coach, Chris Klieman.

Week 5 College Football Best Bet: Kansas State -5

Wisconsin at USC (-15.5)

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)

A ground-and-pound offense was the Badgers’ calling card for several years, but that has changed and not for the better. Wisconsin’s attempts to spread the field and throw the ball more have failed since coach Luke Fickell took over last year. Braedyn Locke, who started three games last season, is the starting quarterback again after Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke suffered a season-ending knee injury in a 42-10 loss to Alabama on Sept. 14. Locke will need a lot of help from running back Chez Mellusi and leading receiver Will Pauling to keep the Badgers within striking distance in the second half.

Fickell’s defense should be sturdy enough to contain Trojans quarterback Miller Moss, who threw a pick-six in the third quarter of a 27-24 loss at Michigan last week. USC’s run defense was cracked open and exposed by the Wolverines, so the Badgers will work the ground game and try to do the same. Fickell is 11-6-1 ATS as conference underdog.

Week 5 College Football Best Bet: Wisconsin +15.5

Georgia (-2) at Alabama

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Jalen Milroe, who led the Tide to a 27-24 victory over Georgia in last season’s SEC title game, is the quarterback to trust more in this matchup. Milroe can run it and throw with accuracy, and he’s working behind the superior offensive line. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck’s supporting cast is not as talented. In the Bulldogs’ 13-12 win at Kentucky two weeks ago, Beck led the offense to only 12 first downs and 262 total yards, and the Georgia defense was gashed for 170 yards on the ground.

Alabama is a home ‘dog for the first time 2007, and first-year coach Kalen DeBoer is 8-2 ATS in his past 10 as the underdog. In DeBoer’s first big game in Tuscaloosa, the Tide getting points is an offer I can’t refuse.

Week 5 College Football Best Bet: Alabama +2

Last week: 2-2 against the spread

Season: 6-12

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