Del Mar Picks: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Horse Racing Predictions

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

The Juvenile, one of the original seven Breeders’ Cup races and the very first championship division settled in the 1984 inaugural event, historically feels as much about tomorrow as it is today. Its winner immediately becomes the winter talk for the Kentucky Derby the following spring. But only Street Sense (2007) and Nyquist (2016) pulled off the career-defining double over the past four decades. So before we dive too much into tomorrow, let’s see where these horses have been … and how that could get them to the winner’s circle on Friday.

The 2024 Juvenile contenders spread to five regional pockets: Kentucky, New York, California, Japan and Ireland. Five of the 10 entrants are unbeaten and the field boasts a cumulative record of 17 wins from 24 starts. There’s not a lot of commonality and even less in terms of disappointing performances.

The Kentuckians head west with a powerful lineup. East Avenue, who drew the rail and has won wire-to-wire in both career starts, ran the best race in the division this year when dominating Saratoga’s Hopeful runner-up Ferocious in Keeneland’s Breeders Futurity. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione exits a leading rider title at the recently concluded Keeneland stand amongst a “Who’s Who” of top American pilots. But before East Avenue announced his candidacy in October, it was Jonathan’s Way who showed his heels to the Iroquois Stakes field at Churchill Downs in September. He comes into the Juvenile freshened on purpose, and his sire Vekoma’s first crop of runners has been out of this world.

Chancer McPatrick has been New York’s finest, winning all three starts, including the Hopeful at Saratoga and the Champagne at Aqueduct. His trainer Chad Brown won the Juvenile in 2017 when it was held at Del Mar with Good Magic, who also prepped in the Champagne. But one of the few common lines we can draw between these 2024 regional runners is Hopeful half-length runner-up Ferocious, who then was soundly defeated vs. East Avenue by 5-1/4 lengths when he changed venues. That’s not a direct knock on Chancer McPatrick, but it’s some measuring stick in a race tough to separate.

Trainer Bob Baffert boasts five Juvenile victories (including 2021 when the event was last held at Del Mar), and if he’s to break the race’s all-time record with a sixth, he might not even have a feel for which of his trio of California-based colts rates best. Getaway Car won Del Mar’s 6-1/2 furlong Best Pal in August; Gaming (a son of 2018 Juvenile winner Game Winner) scored the 7-furlong Del Mar Futurity in September; and then Citizen Bull bounced back from his Del Mar Futurity third to win the 1-1/16 miles American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita over the same distance they’ll battle on Saturday. Give me Citizen Bull among the Baffert trio off a strong workout October 26 that signals his readiness and proven success at the distance. His American Pharoah Stakes prep win came in a race that has produced five of the last 10 Juvenile winners.

The Juvenile infrequently produces an international headline with four winners in its 40 years. Shin Believe, a debut winner over 1-1/8 miles in August in Japan, may be best-equipped among the trio of global challengers. He’s got a better distance pedigree than Ecor Azel, his stablemate for Hideyuki Mori, and superstar veteran jockey Yutaka Take takes the mount on the former. Irish shipper Hill Road is by US dirt sire Quality Road, but has raced only on grass and was well beaten in his lone stakes try at home.

Juvenile Picks:

#6 Citizen Bull 

#1 East Avenue

#5 Jonathan’s Way

#10 Chancer McPatrick