Week 5 NFL Best Bets from Will Hill:

Cleveland +3.5 at Washington

Had this game been played a month ago, the Browns would have been the team laying a field goal. Obviously, adjustments have to be made based on what takes place, but I think this line is an overadjustment. The Commanders have been one of the league’s surprises, and Jayden Daniels is giving fans flashbacks to Robert Griffin III, but the matchups have been quite favorable. After a blowout loss in Week 1 against the Bucs, the Commanders have lit up the scoreboard against the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals— three bad defenses. This will be their toughest test against a 1-3 Browns team that is desperate and more talented defensively than the teams the Commanders have faced in recent weeks.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +3.5

 

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New Orleans +5.5 at Kansas City

The Saints are 2-2, while the Chiefs are 4-0. However, those records could easily be flipped, as the Saints have lost two games in a row in the final seconds, including last week when they allowed 14 non-offensive points to the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have done what they always seem to do—find a way to eke out close games. These teams are very similar when you look at the stats. The Saints, on offense, average 5.7 yards per play, while the Chiefs average 5.5. On defense, the Saints allow 5.5 yards per play, the Chiefs allow 5.4. The Chiefs’ pedestrian offense will take a hit as top receiver Rashee Rice will be out this week and perhaps for the season. This comes a few weeks after starting running back Isiah Pacheco broke his fibula. I’ll take the undervalued Saints to cover against the undermanned Chiefs.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: New Orleans Saints +5.5

San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 27.5 (-130)

I’m starting to think Christian McCaffrey being questionable hours before the 49ers’ opening game against the Jets was gamesmanship. McCaffrey’s return is still nowhere in sight, but the 49ers’ offense is still elite, averaging the third-best yards per play in the league at 6.3. McCaffrey’s replacement, Jordan Mason, is on pace to run for 1,000 yards… by Halloween. The 49ers have scored 30+ in both of their home games this year, against good Jets and Patriots defenses, and now get a sieve in the Cardinals, who are 28th in the league in yards per play allowed. The last four meetings between these two teams have seen the 49ers score 45, 38, 38 and 35 points. I expect more fireworks from the 49ers offense on Sunday. 

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: 49ers Team Total Over 27.5

Brock Purdy to win NFL MVP (14-1)

Speaking of the 49ers’ offense, Purdy was close to winning this award last year, as he entered Christmas night against the Ravens as the odds-on favorite. Purdy imploded that night and ultimately finished third. The MVP recipe is a very simple one. It’s the quarterback of a team who wins their division and usually secures a top-2 seed. The knock on Purdy has always been that the talent around him is what makes him successful. With Christian McCaffrey out for the foreseeable future, and Deebo Samuel having missed time already, that narrative is quickly losing steam. The 49ers have a daunting schedule, but marquee, primetime games give Purdy a chance to shine in standalone games with everyone watching. Five primetime games, and games against the Chiefs, Lions, and Bills give Purdy plenty of opportunities to state his case for MVP. 

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Brock Purdy to win NFL MVP (14-1)

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