Arkansas State Red Wolves:
Major turnaround in conferences like the Sun Belt don’t really get a whole lot of attention, but Butch Jones put together one of the best stories of 2023. While the Red Wolves didn’t exactly put forth an impressive performance in the 21-19 loss to Northern Illinois in the Camellia Bowl, the fact that they got to a bowl game was a massive win.
Arkansas State lost 73-0 to Oklahoma, leading Jones to cry on the sidelines. A week later, Arkansas State lost 37-3 to Memphis. Then Jaylen Raynor took over and everything was suddenly different. The defense improved here and there, but Raynor kickstarted a major offensive boon and led Arky State to their first bowl berth since 2019. And they’re hungry for more.
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Offense
Raynor made some freshman mistakes and got pressured a lot, but his 8.9 yards per attempt ranked in the top 15 and his average depth of target was among the nation’s best. He only wound up with 17 TD passes, but he stayed in Jonesboro and will run an offense that features a lot of returning production and one fascinating newcomer. Raynor will have top rusher Ja’Quez Cross and backup Zak Wallace, who combined for just under 1,300 yards. Raynor himself chipped in another 373.
Top WRs Corey Rucker and Courtney Jackson are both back, but they’ll be joined by an elite athlete in Malik Hornsby, who looks to be making the transition to wideout. He may also serve as the backup QB, which is a big deal with how often Raynor gets hit. He had 123 rushing attempts last year. The offensive line is mostly intact as well.
Defense
This is where Arkansas State really needs to improve. This was the 111th-ranked defense by yards per play and a group that allowed 57 opponents’ trips into the red zone. That was only the third-fewest in the Sun Belt, despite ranking 126th, in case you’re wondering about defense as a whole in this league.
A lot of returning production is back here as well. Jones noted in the spring that Arkansas State was among the youngest teams in the country last season, so a lot of players experienced a lot of growing pains while learning on the job. The top two tacklers and the leading sack man are back, plus Arkansas State is one of the few Sun Belt teams that was able to entice some transfers to join the party.
Outlook
A lot of people seem bullish on this team because of the youth that grew up on the fly last season and the fact that Raynor is clearly the top returning QB in the division. They’ll take some lumps at Michigan and Iowa State, but the crossover games are Georgia State and Old Dominion, which is a pretty kind schedule. My projections call for 6.41 wins and the win total is only 5.5, albeit with heavy Over juice.
Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
