College Football Week 11 Late Line Movement Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:

It’s Thursday again, which means it’s time to analyze the college football betting market and take our last bites at the betting apple for Week 11. TSI is really humming right now with college football, and I’m excited to follow up a huge week last week with (hopefully) another big weekend this week. At the bottom of this article, I will include my TSI résumé rankings so you can see where the College Football Playoff committee aligned and deviated from my numbers as we try to contextualize these teams heading into the final stretch of the season. For now, let’s get to some bets:

 

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Syracuse at Boston College (-2; 53)

I like the spot here for Boston College. Bill O’Brien’s team is coming off of a bye, while Syracuse is coming off of a thrilling overtime victory over Virginia Tech, who was without its star QB Kyron Drones. I think people score-watching saw Syracuse win that game without contextualizing Drones didn’t play, and that’s created some value on the Eagles, who TSI projects to win by 6, so getting under a field goal is great value on the spread here. Neither offense is particularly good, as both teams are outside the TSI top 50, but Boston College’s defense should be the difference in this game, particularly when you factor in Kyle McCord is likely going to hit defenders in the chest with the ball at least once or twice, so turning those into interceptions can swing a game in a hurry. Syracuse is outside the top 100 in opponent points per play, so I think QB Thomas Castellanos and the BC offense will be able to do enough to help out the defense in what TSI indicates could be a low-scoring Boston College win. 

College Football Week 11 Best Bet: Boston College -2 (Play to -3)

Clemson (-6.5; 52.5) at Virginia Tech

It’s almost unfathomable that a Clemson defense is 65th in opponent points per play, but here we are. They’re still at #25 in the TSI defensive ratings, but that’s a far cry from the top 10 unit they normally are. They’ll have a challenge on their hands this week on the road at Virginia Tech, where QB Kyron Drones expects to play this week after missing the last game vs. Syracuse. The fascinating thing about this game is that Clemson is actually in the top 15 offensively in TSI, while Virginia Tech’s top 40 unit isn’t exactly world-beating, it’s more than capable of putting up points quickly, as it ranks 29th in points per play. TSI projects 55.5 points in this game, so I like that we’re still comfortably under the key number of 55 to take this over. Situationally, Clemson is coming off a brutal home loss to Louisville, a game in which it didn’t do anything offensively until garbage time. I think the Tigers’ offense will come out in this game with something to prove, so I look for them to try to put up a big number on the Hokies and take this game over the total.

College Football Week 11 Best Bet: Over 52.5 (Play to 54.5)

For more Week 11 college football analysis, visit the Week 11 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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