Week 8 college football best bets
I couldn’t help myself but to release some weeknight plays yesterday for this week’s college football slate, which saw Jacksonville State cash both our +7.5 and ML +260 tickets to start the week off on the right foot. I’m back with my usual bundle of best bets for the Saturday slate, hoping to keep our momentum rolling, as we’ve gone 5-1 the last two weeks. There are plenty of marquee games and plenty of degenerate specials (hello, UConn) this week, so let’s get to what the T Shoe Index has in store for us this weekend.
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Bowling Green (-7.5) vs Akron, O/U 39
We’re probably one more cashed ticket away from Bowling Green becoming the official college football team of the T Shoe Index. TSI has been high (relative to market) on the Falcons all season, and oddsmakers seem to be slow to catch up, so we’re going to keep backing them until they do. Akron is now ranked 133rd – dead last – in FBS in the TSI ratings, and are again without QB DJ Irons, who reportedly tore his ACL and his out for the season. Without Irons, Akron has been outscored 72-24 against lowly Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. I’m a Joe Moorhead believer, but he’s going to need more time to turn around this Zips program. TSI projects Bowling Green to win this game by 24 points, so this is way too much of a discrepancy to pass up on a team that’s continued to deliver ATS for us this season. Back to the well with the Falcons for me.
Pick: Bowling Green -7.5 (play to -9.5)
UConn vs South Florida (-2.5), O/U 54
I’m not sure what has changed for these teams, but they are trending in polar opposite directions. While on the season, these teams are relatively even in the TSI – TSI projects U Conn as a three point favorite here, which is value in and of itself – but when you look at the last couple of games, South Florida has game grades of -43 and -31 (points below what the average FBS team would’ve been expected to do against an opponent), while U Conn has posted respectable 4.3 and -0.6 in this opponent-adjusted metric. South Florida allowed 56 points in each of those two games, while U Conn has scored 30+ in each of its last two. Give me the Huskies and the points here.
Pick: U Conn +2.5 (play to pick)
Army vs LSU (-30), O/U 57.5
The LSU defense stinks; it has fallen to No. 75 in my defensive ratings. While Army is no offensive juggernaut, one thing they can do is chew the clock and extend drives. TSI projects LSU as 23.5 point favorites, so we’re getting a touchdown of value here in a game that projects to have fewer possessions than usual since they’re playing a service academy. If Army can turn those long drives into any semblance of points, I think they should comfortably cover this number. This is a pretty straight forward handicap: long drives against a bad defense and an inflated number in a game with limited possessions. Give me the ‘dog and the points.
Pick: Army +30 (Play to 28.5)
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