Mike Somich’s Breeders’ Cup Picks:
It’s Breeders’ Cup Saturday! One of my absolute favorite days of the year. You’ve got the best in the world banging heads for horse racing glory. What more could you want? Here are today’s Breeders’ Cup picks.
Breeders’ Cup Classic – Race #8
This is #9 Fierceness vs. the Invaders. Most notably, #3 City of Troy, who has arguably been the best horse in Europe since June. The biggest knock on him is his lack of dirt form; he’s never touched it, and the breeding on the Dam side says he cannot handle it. However, the fact that Aidan O’Brien chose this spot over the BC Turf speaks volumes. If Fierceness can run back to his Travers, he will be very tough, but consistency has always been his issue. The three Japanese horses are all live here.
#1 Forever Young grew up in his time off since the Derby and looks like a much more mature horse. He got the worst of it at every possible turn in the Derby, getting shuffled back to 16th at the start and being bothered all the way home in the lane. He projects to get a much better trip today and should be able to capitalize on it.
#6 Derma Sotogake, who ran second in this race last year, is back for more. He was running better last year heading into the Breeders’ Cup, but a turn of form could make the 20-1 price look like a gift.
#7 Ushba Tesoro ran fifth in this spot last year but, unlike his Japanese counterpart, has been better this season. He projects to get a better trip and should be in it late.
#12 Arthur’s Ride is worth noting too. He’s the fastest horse of the bunch early and should make the lead. There are quite a few other speed horses in here, but if he clears and isn’t pressed, he’s talented enough to take them gate to wire!
Breeders’ Cup Picks – 1-3-7-9
The Bets – $50 Win #1
Breeders’ Cup Turf – Race #7
Based on the past, it’s no surprise that the favorite is the Charley Appleby trainee #11 Rebel’s Romance, 5/2 on the morning line, who won this race at Keeneland in 2022. His 2023 campaign did not go as planned, which caused him to miss this race last year, but 2024 has been all systems go while racking up over six million in earnings worldwide while facing top competition at every stop. He’s a deserving favorite who has won four of five starts this year, and while the post isn’t ideal, he has more than enough talent to overcome it.
#4 Luxembourg is a European with speed that does not need the lead; that’s dangerous. He has been against the best in the world in all of his last ten starts, including two wins, with one coming at this distance. He reunites with jockey Ryan Moore to try to take down the turf.
Japanese invader #3 Shahryar will try to turn the tables on Rebel’s Romance after running second to him in the Middle East earlier this year. I do not think he will win, but hitting the board is a definite possibility.
#10 Wingspan is an up-and-coming three-year-old who is regally bred to compete at this level of racing. She faced the best ladies in Europe last time out, running a solid second in her first effort at Group 1 company. She will need to improve, but she has early speed, and the 15-1 price is enticing.
Breeders’ Cup Picks – 11-4-3-10
Spot Plays
Breeders’ Cup Mile, Race #11 – $50 Win #6
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, Race #5 – $50 Win #12 Bradsell, $5 Trifecta 12 / 1,4,9 / 1,4,9
Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Race #6 – $50 Exacta 2 with 1
