Best bets for UFC Las Vegas 75
This week, it’s back to Las Vegas and the APEX for UFC LV75: Vettori vs. Cannonier, a fourteen-fight slate that begins with prelims at 4 p.m. PT, with the main card at 7 p.m. PT.
Of the fourteen bouts, only four are with combatants weighing over 170 pounds, with an additional seven fights that are scheduled between 125 and 135 pounds, where finish rates are some 9% lower than with athletes competing from 155 pounds and above.
This year in the UFC, the favorites are 129-66-11 or 61.8%.
Last week, my release of Marc Andre Barriault via decision +175 earned victory over Eryk Anders, thus cashing our second ticket in a row.
2023 results now stand 9-8 +2.0u.
Marvin Vettori -120 vs. Jared Cannonier +100
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
Cannonier, a purple belt in BJJ, is the fourth-ranked middleweight and enters this bout focused on immediate results. He’s 39 and knows he doesn’t have another go-round in this meatgrinder they call the UFC middleweight division.
Cannonier has competed successfully at heavyweight, light heavyweight, and now at middleweight. It’s at 185 pounds that he can move like a lightweight, hit with the force of a light heavyweight, and incur the strikes of a heavyweight.
Cannonier’s game is founded on footwork, cardio and is power based. When he’s on his game, his low kicks are bone-shattering, and his aggression/explosiveness/power ends fights at the blink of an eye.
On the Vettori side, you have the consummate bully, hothead Italian, clench-fisted fighter.
Vettori, a brown belt in BJJ, uses unrelenting forward pressure with wild, wide, telegraphed striking designed to damage opponents and allow for his entry into the pocket. Once there, he becomes quite an effective mauler.
I look for Vettori to attempt to strike with Cannonier until he realizes that Cannonier’s movement and power are too formidable. Then, it’s my judgment that he’ll try to grapple and wrestle Cannonier. Vettori is well-coached in attempting to ground Cannonier. On the mat, Vettori would hold an advantage.
Cannonier has competed against and defeated many more singularly dimensioned opponents before Vettori. I expect his speed and movement to frustrate the Italian and make this fight more of a nightmare as opposed to an ‘Italian dream.’
Cannonier only stands behind Champion Issy Adesanya and Robert Whittaker in this division—at least that’s how I handicap it.
My release: Cannonier +100
Cannonier decision +330 for those with more appetite for risk.
Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. over -180
Muslim Salikhov -190 vs. Nicholas Dalby +165
Welterweight (170 pounds)
This fight is between a couple of 38-plus-year-old cats who still bring violence and destruction. What’s as compelling, however, are their backgrounds.
In Salikhov, we have the typical Russian vice grip. He’s an Honored Master of Sports in Wushu Sanda, a Master of Sports in Complex Martial Arts and a Blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Salikhov enters this bout off a nice finish win over Portugal’s Andre Fialho. He can effectively grapple, wrestle and strike using all appendages.
In Denmark’s Nicholas Dalby, we get a fighter who looks like he just jumped off a Viking ship from the 800s.
He’s similar in size to his opponent, but the green belt in Ashihara karate and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu employs an unusual karate-like upright stance that enables him to throw kicks and strikes from diverse angles of approach.
Dalby enters with momentum. He’s coming off two wins over Brazilian grapplers, so he’s well prepared for Salikhov’s attack realizing that in Salikhov, he steps up in fight prowess from his former foes.
When this fight begins, Dalby will want to keep this a stand-up war as he holds a five-inch reach advantage with a three-inch leg advantage and knows how to use that substantial edge very well. He’ll strive to keep Salikhov at distance where his striking can be most effective.
Salikhov seems the more well-versed mixed martial artist, and he’ll hold more options of attack, but one way or another, he’ll have to earn his way to the inside to have a positive impact whether striking or wrestling.
This is where the fight gets interesting as Salikhov must force engagement while Dalby will aim to shellack the incoming Russian with knees, kicks, elbows and fists as he forges his way inside.
A fascinating stylistic bout.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -180
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Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading!
