Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football…
8:15 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders (-2, 45.5)
The Packers (2-2) just got rolled by the Lions 34-20, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Raiders (1-3) won their season opener but have since lost three straight, falling to the Chargers 24-17 last week and failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with the Raiders listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Early in the week, it appeared as though smart money liked the Packers as we saw Green Bay flip to a 2.5-point road favorite. However, since that time it’s been all sharp buyback on Las Vegas, with the Raiders flipping back to a 2-point home favorite, which is where the line rests now. This signals late "dog to favorite" line movement on the Raiders. One reason for the big steam back to Vegas is the fact that QB Jimmy Garoppolo cleared concussion protocol and is expected to start tonight.
The public is all over Green Bay, with 65% of bets grabbing the points with the Packers. The Raiders have value as a rare contrarian primetime home favorite in a "fade the trendy dog" spot, receiving only 35% of bets but 40% of money. This bet split also indicates a "low bets, higher dollars" discrepancy in favor of Vegas. Brad Allen, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (55% ATS). One advantage for Vegas is likely to be on the ground. Green Bay is giving up 155 rushing yards per game, 2nd worst in the NFL.
The total has ticked up from 43.5 to 45.5, indicating some respected money leaning over. The betting percentages are split down the middle, with 50% of bets and dollars on both sides of the total. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the NFL in points allowed, with the Packers giving up 24 PPG and the Raiders 25 PPG.
