It’s time for Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 10 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 10 NFL best bets and Week 10 NFL predictions.

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints – 1:00 pm ET

This was a weird week for the Saints. After an embarrassing loss to the Panthers, the team decided to move on from head coach Dennis Allen. Darren Rizzi will now get a crack at coaching this group on an interim basis. The Saints also shipped off Marshon Lattimore, signaling they might not believe they can turn things around this season. However, this is a divisional home game, so New Orleans is going to get up for it. The Saints should also want to play for their new coach, and they happen to be playing an opponent that is a little overrated right now.

The Falcons might be in first place in the NFC South, but this team is far from perfect. Sure, Atlanta is 10th in the league in EPA per play (0.068) and Kirk Cousins is in a nice groove. However, Atlanta is just 22nd in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.033), and having a mediocre defense makes it hard to win on the road. The Falcons are also especially weak against the pass, so Derek Carr should be able to get things going here. I know people are concerned about Chris Olave being out with a concussion, but the Saints should still be able to move the ball through the air here. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Alvin Kamara has a big game on the ground, even though the Falcons are better against the run than they are against the pass.

New Orleans also isn’t bad defensively. Sure, things have unraveled a bit lately, but the Saints are 16th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.006) and they have been rock solid against the pass. There’s no reason to believe they can’t slow down the Falcons, especially with an energized home crowd behind them.

Since the 2020 season, New Orleans also happens to be 5-4 against the spread and 6-3 straight-up versus Atlanta. That includes a 3-1 SU record against the Falcons when playing in New Orleans. I just think it’s a little crazy to see the Falcons laying this many points on the road. I like the Saints to keep this to a field goal or less, and I like their chances of pulling off the upset.

Bet: Saints +4 (-110 – 2 units) & Saints ML (+166 – 0.5 units)

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs – 1:00 pm ET

Last week’s loss to the Ravens got ugly for the Broncos. Denver ended up losing that game by 31 points. However, the Broncos did have a lot of success moving the ball in the game, they just didn’t cash in on a few short-yardage situations. They also had a few drives stall out in Ravens territory. But overall, it was another game in which Bo Nix looked good operating Sean Payton’s offense, and it really feels like he’s getting better every week. With that in mind, I’m willing to trust in Denver to avoid getting blown out by Kansas City in Week 10.

This Broncos team is still third in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.112), even after a game in which the Ravens beat up on them. Denver is spectacular against the run, so you shouldn’t expect Kareem Hunt to get going on the ground here. The Broncos also have a very talented group of defensive backs, and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph knows how to put them in the right positions to succeed. So, I have a lot of faith in Denver finding a way to keep Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City from putting a big number on the board. While the Chiefs are undefeated this season, they really haven’t looked unstoppable offensively.

If Denver’s defense does its job here, it’s just hard to see this being a game that is decided by much more than a touchdown. Considering all of that, 8.5 feels like a lot of points in this game — especially considering it’s a divisional showdown. The Broncos are also 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Chiefs, so they have been a thorn in the side of the back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

Bet: Broncos +8.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Commanders – 1:00 pm ET

I already have the Over on Pittsburgh’s regular-season win total, so I don’t want to get too carried away with betting them down the stretch. However, this is the type of game that the Steelers really need to win. I know the Commanders have been much better this season, but there’s no reason this can’t be the seventh victory for Mike Tomlin and Co.

In the two weeks with Russell Wilson under center, the Steelers are 17th in the NFL in EPA per play (0.041). That’s a small improvement over what we saw from Pittsburgh with Justin Fields under center. The Steelers just have the ability to open up the playbook now, and Wilson is doing everything that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is asking of him. Well, don’t be surprised if that goes to another level in Week 10. The Commanders are very beatable in the secondary, as they’re just 22nd in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.087). That said, Wilson should have some chances to make some throws down the field, and that’s especially true when looking George Pickens’ way. Washington doesn’t have anybody that can cover Pickens.

Defensively, the Steelers should also be in decent shape here. Pittsburgh is fourth in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.184), so this defensive line should hold up nicely against Brian Robinson Jr. and a good Washington running game. The Steelers just have to find a way to keep Jayden Daniels from going insane with his arm. And while Pittsburgh is eighth in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.020), the team can be prone to some mistakes in the secondary. But defensive coordinator Teryl Austin probably spent most of this week’s practice sessions going over coverages. So, I trust the Steelers to have a decent plan in place here.

This is also another situation in which Tomlin deserves the benefit of the doubt. Pittsburgh is 71-47 SU against teams with winning records under his watch, and the team is also 75-55 SU in games with lines of +3 to -3 under him.

This just feels like a toss-up game to me, but I trust what the Steelers have to end up on the right side of it. At +130 odds, that’s worth a shot.

Bet: Steelers ML (+130)

Additional Week 10 Best Bets

TEASER: Panthers +13.5 vs. Giants & Cardinals +8.5 vs. Jets (-150 – 1.5 units)
Bengals +8.5 (-154 – 1.5 units) vs. Ravens – Click here for my Bengals vs. Ravens preview!
Bengals vs. Ravens Over 52.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs vs. Ravens (-140)
Rams ML (-133 – 1.5 units) – Click here for my Dolphins vs. Rams preview!

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2024 Record: 27-33 (-12.08 units)

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