College Football Week 11 Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

After a 3-1 week last week on my VSiN article bets, I’m back for more this week and I think I’ve found a nice rhythm with the way I’m picking games and when to bet those games. I won’t give away all the secret sauce, but I do feel very confident moving forward to close out this season that I’ve found a sustainable approach to betting college football. The issue I’ve faced in the past, as you may expect, is that by having a projection for every side and total, the task of narrowing my card down can be very daunting and can feel like throwing darts in the dark. Let’s look to keep this momentum rolling into this week, where I’ve already identified some good early Week 11 college football best bets for us.

 

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Iowa Hawkeyes (-6.5; 44. 5) vs. UCLA Bruins 

What a tough spot for UCLA here, in my opinion. They’re coming off a huge, season-rejuvenating win over Nebraska – who had just taken Ohio State to the wire – and now they’ve got to turn around on a short week and prepare for Kaleb Johnson and the Hawkeyes offense that suddenly seems to be rolling after an abysmal performance against Michigan State a few weeks ago. QB Cade McNamara has been benched for Brandon Sullivan, who’s much more of a run threat, and that seems to have unlocked the Hawkeyes’ offense, propelling them to .646 points per play last game, well above their .489 on the season. TSI projects Iowa -13.5 in this game, and I honestly won’t be surprised to see Iowa run away with this thing. Let’s get this before it inevitably climbs above 7.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: Iowa -6.5 (Play to -7)

UCF Knights vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (-4.5; 56) 

Honestly, I thought UCF was dead like 3 weeks ago; however, they’ve continued to battle and absolutely demolished Arizona last week, so give Gus Malzahn’s group a lot of credit for that after the season didn’t quite go the way they’d hoped early on. Arizona State, on the other hand, has been a great story this year, over-achieving by even the loftiest of expectations already. However, being favored by over a field goal against a definitively more talented team is risky business, and I think this is a game UCF can keep within the number and potentially win outright to build on last week’s domination of the Wildcats. Offensively, UCF is 23rd in opponent-adjusted points per game, while Arizona State is 49th; and defensively, neither team is very good, with Arizona State being 42nd and UCF 54th. All in all, TSI projects ASU -1.5 here, so I’m taking the 4.5 points with the Knights.

Week 11 College Football Best Bet: UCF +4.5 (Play to +3)

For more college football Week 11 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 11 hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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