LSU and Florida are the College World Series finalists with the winner to be decided in a best-of-three matchup, starting Saturday (7 p.m. ET) in Omaha, Neb. LSU and Florida are both -110 to win the series at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check for latest odds and betting splits.
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Matt Grissom of NCAA Insiders and Ben Wilson of VSiN offer their opinions on the series.
Matt Grissom (@GrissomTweets) of NCAAInsiders.com (@NCAAInsiders)
For those who have missed it, I’ll catch you up on what you need to know about the College World Series as the LSU Tigers (52-16) face off against the Florida Gators (53-15) in a best-of-three championship series, beginning Saturday, June 24th. The all-SEC affair will feature several future MLB stars, like Wyatt Langford (LF – Florida), Dylan Crews (CF – LSU), and potentially, National Pitcher of the Year, Paul Skenes (RHP – LSU).
If this is your first time hearing the name Paul Skenes, let me tell you, this kid is special. The Air Force transfer has an ERA of 1.11 while recording 42 strikeouts over his four postseason starts. Which brings me to why we have the potential to see Skenes, but it’s not guaranteed. The Tigers had to battle back from the losers bracket, meaning they’ve had to play five games over the span of six days, while Florida has been able to sit back and relax, only playing three games over the span of seven days.
Because of their additional games, Skenes was tasked with throwing in Thursday night’s elimination game vs the #1 National Seed, Wake Forest, and ACC Pitcher of the Year, Rhett Lowder. This game lived up to the hype as the two aces dueled their teams into a 0-0 tie before LSU eventually walked it off in the 11th with Tommy White’s two-run home run, putting LSU into the Championship Series. Because of the NCAA’s rules on pitch counts, Skenes cannot pitch until the potential Game 3, because he went over their 110 pitch count rule.
What’s been most impressive about LSU’s improbable run through the losers bracket, is how the bullpen has performed. The bullpen appeared to be the Tigers biggest liability this season, averaging a near 5 ERA throughout the regular season. This is what I thought would ultimately eliminate LSU from contention, but they have proven to be a valuable asset for Jay Johnson throughout this postseason, throwing a combined 2.85 ERA.
What do the rested Florida Gators have to do to keep Skenes off the mound? Get two wins behind their ace, Brandon Sproat, and one of the best second-day starters in college baseball, Hurston Waldrep. Sproat and Waldrep have a combined postseason ERA of 2.52, with a 2.23 ERA bullpen behind them. This Gator pitching staff is perfectly capable of keeping the Tigers star-studded offense at bay, while also capable of putting up runs themselves. Led by Wyatt Langford, Josh Rivera, and two-way player, Jac Caglianone, who seem to always come up with a big hit when it’s needed most. This Gator offense will be one of the toughest lineups the Tigers have faced all season, so I think we’re in for a really great matchup.
You may be asking yourself, where’s the bettable information in all of this? We have a rested bullpen and starters on their normal rotation for Florida while an LSU pitching staff is going to continue piecing together performances until they can throw their ace. One bit of noteworthy information is that of the 13 games we’ve had in Omaha, the under is 12-0-1 to the opening number. Charles Schwab Field sits a little larger than both of these teams’ home fields and the wind seems to always be blowing in. I’m of the belief that the under trend will continue to be a profitable play in the College World Series, regardless who is on the mound.
As for the series winner itself, this is a coin flip matchup and the odds are indicative of that. I’m pretty confident that the winner of Game 1 will win the series and if LSU wins a game without Skenes, it’ll likely be Game 1 against Brandon Sproat with Ty Floyd on the mound. I think Florida wins Game 2 with Hurston Waldrep on the mound vs LSU’s bullpen. But if you’re Florida, you’re doing whatever’s necessary to keep this a two-game series so LSU doesn’t have the opportunity to throw Paul Skenes.
In closing, if you’re a believer that history repeats itself, you’ll enjoy this. In 2017, the LSU Tigers found themselves in the losers bracket with the #1 overall seed, Oregon State, who they had to beat twice to stave off elimination before reaching the Championship Series. Their opponent? The Florida Gators. The Gators swept their bracket 3-0, beating TCU to punch their ticket to the Championship Series. Sound familiar to what has ensued this year? Florida went on to win the 2017 National Championship in a 2-0 series sweep over LSU. We’ll see if the Gators can repeat history this weekend.
Ben Wilson (@Ben_Wilson_1), VSiN host
Who said there was nothing exciting to bet on once the NBA and NHL seasons ended? The College Baseball postseason has given us bettors excitement and then some for the past three weeks, with an all-SEC showdown between Florida and LSU to decide the national champion in a best-of-3 series starting Saturday night in Omaha.
After winning one of the most memorable CWS games of all time 2-0 in 11 Innings Thursday to eliminate tournament favorite Wake Forest, LSU comes in riding high. There’s just one issue: National Pitcher of the Year Paul Skenes, the arm who carried the Tigers all season and struck out 9 in an 8 inning masterpiece against Wake, has thrown 243 pitches across two sparkling CWS starts and will be unavailable in a starter’s role for the series (there’s a chance he could be used in relief if the series goes to a winner-take-all game three on Monday). LSU’s achilles heel this season has been the pitching behind Skenes, as only three other arms with at least 15 appearances on the staff have a sub-4.00 ERA. However, the Bayou Bengals did win back-to-back elimination games before Skenes’ gem by allowing just 2 combined runs in what were both pseudo-bullpen games.
In the other SEC dugout, it seems as though Florida has fixed its biggest weakness in Omaha. Starting pitching efficiency was an issue most of the season for the Gators, but top starters Hurston Waldrep and Brandon Sproat have been electric with 6 quality starts and 58 combined strikeouts across their 6 postseason appearances.
Florida clearly has the starting pitching edge and deserves to be the slight favorites in the series, although most sportsbooks have the series price a toss-up at -110 on each side. The bigger betting story entering the CWS final has been the lack of runs at Charles Schwab Field, with Unders going 10-2-1 as a result of both elite pitching plus a bigger ballpark than most college venues and with the wind blowing in consistently. There’s no reason to believe that trend will stop, even as bookmakers finally adjusted the total for Saturday’s game one to 9.5 (The LSU-Wake elimination game on Thursday had its total open at 11.5 before being bet down to 7.5 within an hour). This matchup has all the makings of a championship series to remember with high profile MLB draft prospects on both sides squaring off.
