Sunday Night Baseball: Phillies vs. Mets:
The NFL absolutely takes center stage on Sundays, but the matchup between the Phillies and Mets on Sunday Night Baseball is a good one with some significant playoff implications. It will be Zack Wheeler for the Phillies and Tylor Megill for the Mets, as the Phillies inch closer to locking up the NL East Division title and the Mets continue their push for one of the three Wild Card berths.
How to Watch Phillies vs. Mets
Where: ESPN
Top MLB Resources:
When: Sunday September 22, 7:10 p.m. ET
Phillies vs. Mets MLB Odds
Philadelphia Phillies -148 // New York Mets +124
Total: 6.5 (-122/-102)
Phillies vs. Mets Game Preview
A low-scoring affair is expected in this one, as we get a total of 6.5 in this matchup. The Phillies have a six-game lead on the Mets in the division and have already clinched a playoff spot, but they’re looking for more. They entered Sunday tied with the Dodgers for the best record in the NL and four games ahead of the Brewers for one of the two byes in the Wild Card Round.
With seven games to play, Philly’s magic number for the division is down to one, so any Phillies win or Mets loss is enough to seal the deal. In other words, a Phillies win as a favorite tonight and they’ll have to cover the Citi Field visitors’ clubhouse with plastic. (By the way, if it happens tonight, the Phillies play the Cubs at home tomorrow and that would probably be a good time to fade Philadelphia with a party and a late flight home)
After being unable to seal the deal last night with Ranger Suarez on the mound, the Phillies turn to their ace in Wheeler, who comes in with a 2.56 ERA, 2.86 xERA, and a 3.14 FIP in his 186.2 innings of work. The right-hander has very similar numbers to what he had last season, with a modest bump in K% up to 27.9% and a small BB% change up to 6.7%. He’s been solid in the second half with a .189/.234/.339 slash and a .249 wOBA against while posting a 2.31 ERA in 70 innings of work.
Megill has only thrown 68.1 innings for the Mets this season. He’s got a 4.08 ERA with a 3.89 xERA and a 3.46 FIP in his 13 starts and one relief effort. Since returning to the ballclub on August 30, Megill has four starts with an ERA of 1.69 and a FIP of 2.09. He has a 22/6 K/BB ratio with five runs (four earned) allowed on 13 hits in 21.1 innings of work. He’s also done a really good job to limit hard contact with a 30.9% Hard Hit% and just a 5.5% Barrel%.
The biggest question for the Mets tonight is whether or not Francisco Lindor can return, even in a pinch hit role. In a world where Shohei Ohtani doesn’t exist, Lindor could be the NL MVP front-runner, as Lindor has a .303/.364/.564 slash with a .396 wOBA and a 160 wRC+ in the second half. It seems like the Mets are targeting Tuesday for his return from a back injury, but we’ll see if he can give it a go if needed in high leverage late in the game.
Speaking of high leverage, the Mets have used Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett two of the last three days, but their bullpen is in good shape, all things considered. The Phillies have used four relievers each of the last three days, but Orion Kerkering, who had yesterday’s seventh-inning collapse, is the only one unavailable today after working back-to-back days and three of the last four.
I’ll lay the price with the Phillies tonight. Wheeler is one of the top pitchers in the NL and the ball is in his hands with the chance to clinch the division. Megill is a far less trustworthy arm in my opinion.
Pick: Phillies -148
Phillies vs. Mets Player Props
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks (+105)
Megill has a 10.8% BB% against lefties this season and had a 10.8% BB% last season as well. Kyle Schwarber has a 15.9% BB% in that split, but his Over 0.5 Walks price is juiced in the -150s, whereas you can get Harper, who has an 11.6% BB% against righties and a much lower strikeout rate at plus money. That’s a shot that I’m willing to take in this one.
