Cleveland Browns 2024 Predictions and Odds:

For just the third time since 1994, the Browns ended a season with double digits in the win column. The 11-6 record doesn’t even begin to explain the odyssey that was Cleveland’s season, as Kevin Stefanski won Coach of the Year for the second time and the Browns used five different starting quarterbacks. Deshaun Watson had the most QB wins with five, but Joe Flacco was right there with four, as he came off the street to propel the Browns to their second postseason appearance in four seasons.

With one of the best rosters top to bottom, and one of the biggest QB questions in the league, a wide range of outcomes seem possible for the Browns.

 

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Offense

The Browns went 5-1 in Watson’s six starts, but he didn’t have much to do with it. He was sacked 17 times in those six games and posted a 7/4 TD/INT ratio while throwing for just 186 yards per game. Cleveland even lost Nick Chubb in Week 2 to a horrific knee injury, so it was the Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt show throughout the season.

Ultimately, the Browns finished with one more TD pass (24) than interceptions (23) and still went 11-6. This was the 28th-ranked offense by EPA/play. Among QBs with at least 150 plays, Watson ranked 29th out of 45 QBs in EPA/play. Chubb should be back and Cleveland added Jerry Jeudy to play opposite Amari Cooper, not to mention David Njoku remains a matchup nightmare, but it still feels like Watson has an uphill road to climb.

This was the 29th-ranked offense on third down and a group that went 6-2 in games decided by four or fewer points. One big loss that isn’t on the roster is OL coach Bill Callahan, who joined his son, Brian, in Tennessee.

Defense

The defensive resurgence from the Browns under Jim Schwartz was unquestionably the key to the season. The Browns topped the league in yards per play and total yards allowed. They finished tied for fifth in takeaways and led the league in EPA/play, including the top mark in Dropback EPA.

The second level of the defense has been rebuilt with Sione Takitaki and Anthony Walker heading out and Devin Bush and Jordan Hicks heading in. One of the secrets to Cleveland’s recent success has been some excellent player evaluation from one of the sharpest front offices in the NFL, spearheaded by GM Andrew Berry. 

This should be one of the league’s top defenses once again, but it will be tested by a stronger schedule filled with better passing offenses.

Outlook

The story is the same for the Cleveland Browns as it was heading into last season. They exceeded expectations, even with some pedestrian early efforts from Watson. This is one of the best rosters in the NFL outside of the most important position in the sport. The schedule is stiffer, but this remains a terrific roster and average or better play from Watson will give the Browns a chance at achieving some special things.

The vig on the Over 8.5 seems correct here, as this is a team with a high floor and a high ceiling.

Cleveland Browns Pick: Over 8.5 Wins

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