Late Line Movement NFL Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:

For once, I’m thankful I didn’t stay up and watch the entirety of the Thursday night NFL game. I had the Ravens +3, and from what I gathered on social media this morning, I should be sick to my stomach that the bet lost on a close call on the last play. As it stands, I’m indifferent and marked the bet as a loss and am moving on with my day – probably the healthier of the two options as well. We’ve got an NFL best bet on tonight’s game in Brazil, as well as another Sunday game, but for now I want to analyze the market and see if any line moves warrant adding to the NFL card this weekend. 

If you followed my college football article doing the same, you’ll know in college I’m looking for line moves of 3+ points on a spread and 4+ on a total; however, the NFL market is much more efficient so we’re not going to get those types of swings very often. What we have to do is look more for moves that push lines through key numbers in our favor, using my T Shoe Index as the guide for how to evaluate that. 

 

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Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Houston opened at DraftKings this offseason as 1.5-point favorites over the Colts, but that line has since been bet up to the key number of 3 (-115 most places).While on the surface, a 1.5-point line move is not overly notable, when factoring in the importance of the number 3 in NFL betting—it’s the most common margin of victory in the NFL—this move sounds alarming to me. 

My T Shoe Index makes this game a pick ‘em, so I would’ve leaned Colts early on anyway, but if you’re going to give me a full touchdown, I think I have to bet it. Also, the price to get 3 points is -115 at most books, so you may ask yourself, “Shouldn’t I just bet 2.5 at -105 or at some other book?” The short answer is “No.” Go read my price equivalencies article to see the breakdown of how 2.5 and 3 compare in price equivalency, and you’ll see why I say to bet +3 (-115) over +2 (-105). Basically, you’d need +2.5 to be priced at +105 or better to be a better bet than +3 (-115). 

NFL Best Bet: Colts +3 (-115) Play to +3(-132)

Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys

Last year, the Browns had some crazy high-scoring games due to Joe Flacco’s propensity to throw touchdowns – to the other team – as well as Cleveland’s stingy defense capitalizing on some scores of their own. This year, they’ll get Deshaun Watson back under center to stabilize the offense, theoretically. Dallas, meanwhile, was fourth in the league in scoring last year and return their key weapons. 

This total opened at 44.5 at DraftKings and has been bet down to 41; this is a massively important line move because the top 4 most common point totals in the NFL are 41, 43, 37 and 44. So, a line that started north of the 4th most common total has now dropped through #4, #3 and is sitting on #1. More importantly, TSI projects 48.5 points in this game, which I had initially chalked up to a lot of variance last year with Cleveland, so I was going to just stay away and wait and see what they look like this year; however, a projected Over that has dropped through multiple key numbers now is damn near an auto-bet for me. 

NFL Best Bet: Over 41 or better

For more NFL Week 1 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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