Sunday NFL Week 15 Sharp Report

By
Josh Appelbaum
-
178

 

Today the weekend wraps up with Week 15 of the NFL regular season. The public is coming off a banner week, with Week 14 favorites going 12-2 straight up and 11-3 ATS. Meanwhile, overs went 10-4. With popular chalk doing so well, many public bettors will likely double down on favorites and overs today. However, it might make for a buy-low Week 15 for dogs and unders as sportsbooks just took a big hit and will likely shade lines further toward favorites and overs, providing value to go the other way.

 

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For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 15 matchups today…

 

1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Titans (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) snapped a two-game losing skid with a 20-0 win over the Jags last week, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Steelers (6-6-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) are just 1-3 over their last four games. Pittsburgh just fell to Minnesota 36-28, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Titans listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Respected money has hammered Pittsburgh, driving the Steelers from 2.5 to -1.5. Pittsburgh has a rest advantage, as they last played on Thursday while the Titans played on Sunday. Teams that didn't cover the previous week against teams that did cover are 29-8 (78%) this season. Pittsburgh is -125 on the moneyline. Sharp money appears to be leaning over as this total has risen from 41.5 to 42.5. 

 

1 p.m. ET: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

The Jets (3-10 SU, 3-10 ATS) have lost two straight and are just 1-5 over their last six games. New York just fell to New Orleans 30-9, failing to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) started the season 1-7 but have since won five straight, most recently handing the Giants 20-9 and covering as 7-point home favorites. This line opened with Miami listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have laid the points with the Dolphins, steaming Miami up from -8.5 to -9.5. Miami has a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while the Jets played on Sunday. Favorites off a win are roughly 58% ATS over the past decade. Miami could also be a teaser candidate (-9.5 to -3.5), which goes through the key number of 7. We've also seen some sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 43 to 41. Late season divisional unders are roughly 57% over the past decade. 

 

4:05 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

The Bengals (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS) have dropped two straight and just fell to the 49ers 26-23 in overtime, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Broncos (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS) are 4-2 over their last six games and just crushed the Lions 38-10, easily covering as 12.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Broncos listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. We've seen this line rise from Broncos -1.5 to -3, signaling respected money on Denver. The Broncos are only getting 41% of bets but 50% of money, indicating "low bets, higher dollars" sharp action in their favor. For those looking to follow the sharp action but wary of laying the points, Denver is -150 on the moneyline. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 44. Denver is 10-3 to the under and Cincinnati is 7-6 to the under. 

 

More Sunday Week 15 Moves

Bills -10 to -13 vs Panthers

Cowboys -10.5 to -11.5 at Giants

Jaguars -3 to -4.5 vs Texans

Falcons-49ers Over 45 to 46.5

49ers -7.5 to -9 vs Falcons

Packers -4.5 to -7 at Ravens

Saints-Bucs Under 47 to 45.5

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