Top NFL Survivor picks for Week 6

October 10, 2023

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NFL Survivor picks for Week 6

After some early-season carnage, it feels like things have really settled down in Survivor contests. Rough seas have calmed and many of the heavy favorites have been holding up over the past few weeks, including two really popular options for Week 5 in the Dolphins and Lions. Except for a 102-yard pick-six for the Giants against Miami, both games were virtually sweat-free.

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I agonized over last week’s decision. Not because I thought either team was really at risk, but because it was tough to know exactly which team to save for the future. Ultimately, I took the Dolphins, who won easily and kept this article rolling into Week 6.

With both the Dolphins (Week 5) and the Bills (Week 2) off the board for me, I do not have the obvious choices this week, which is a mistake on my part. I should have taken the Lions last week to have the Bills this week. Alas, those are the decisions you are put to in Survivor and now I have one to make this week.

Along with the Dolphins and Bills, I’ve used Commanders (Week 1), Chiefs (Week 3), and 49ers (Week 4), so I’ve exhausted most of the elite teams.

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NFL Survivor Picks to Consider

Miami Dolphins over Carolina Panthers

Hey, just because I can’t take the Dolphins doesn’t mean you can’t. The Panthers went into last week having scored 40 combined points with an average of 251 yards per game with Bryce Young at the helm. They actually scored 24 last week with 342 yards, but that game was a blowout early and the Panthers scored garbage time TDs trailing by 25 points each time.

The Dolphins are setting offensive records left and right to begin the season and have racked up 8.3 yards per play, a full two yards per play more than anybody else. The Panthers are 28th in YPP with 4.4. Miami’s defense does feel suspect, but on a per-play basis, that unit is still better than Carolina’s. The Panthers also only have four takeaways in five games.

If you’ve got Miami, I think they’re the obvious choice this week.

Buffalo Bills over New York Giants

Obvious choice No. 2 is the other AFC East juggernaut, as the Bills host the Giants on Sunday Night Football. We’ve got Buffalo off of another disappointing effort and the last time that happened, they pummeled the Raiders by a 38-10 score. The Bills do have some issues. The defense is not on the level of past seasons and the Matt Milano season-ending injury is a huge deal.

But, they still have Josh Allen and a top-flight offense, which the Giants are going to have a hard time keeping up with in this game. Daniel Jones has been sacked 267 times through five games (okay, actually only 30 times) and the team boasts a 2/6 TD/INT ratio. Allen has 11 passing touchdowns already. Even though Giants head coach Brian Daboll is very familiar with Allen and the Bills personnel, he just doesn’t have the team capable of going toe-to-toe with Buffalo.

Philadelphia Eagles over New York Jets

I’m sure this one comes as a huge surprise to see listed, but the Eagles come back to the East Coast to take on a Jets team that is dealing with some key injuries and is still dealing with Zach Wilson at quarterback. The Eagles haven’t completely looked the part of the reigning NFC Champions, as they’ve had some close-for-comfort games, but this may not be one.

The Eagles rank in the top 10 in yards per play on both offense and defense. The Jets are 18th on offense and 13th on defense, so they’ve mostly played like a league average team in those two stats. The appeal in using Philadelphia is that there aren’t really any optimal chances to take them until December 25 at home against the Giants. The Commanders are worse than the Jets for the Week 8 road game, but road divisional games can be tricky and that game is sandwiched between Miami and Dallas.

It’s all well and good to hold teams back, unless you get eliminated and can’t use them. So, that’s the decision to make with the Eagles, and really any team on a weekly basis.

NFL Survivor Pick for Week 6

Los Angeles Rams over Arizona Cardinals

This one feels a little bit risky, but with Buffalo and Miami not available, the Rams strike me as the next best option. With only one week’s worth of Cooper Kupp, the Rams have a top-10 offense by EPA/play and Dropback EPA. The emergence of Puka Nacua has been one of the most interesting storylines of the season, but Tutu Atwell also continued to be a factor in Kupp’s Week 5 return.

The Cardinals were a great story in the early going, but the defense ranks 29th in EPA/play over the last three weeks, so teams are starting to crack the code. Head coach Jonathan Gannon doesn’t have the dudes that he had with the Eagles and they’re generating pressure at the fourth-lowest rate in the league per Pro-Football-Reference. That should give Matthew Stafford plenty of time to throw and go through his progressions with three legitimate receiving options.

Joshua Dobbs threw two picks last week and had his worst game of the season against a Bengals defense that had been struggling a bit up until that point. The Rams defense doesn’t have the most impressive numbers since the win over the Seahawks, but they have played a pretty strong schedule to this point and are now taking a bit of a step back with the Cardinals.

This may not be the “best” play in Week 6, but I find it to be the best available play for me, so the Rams are the pick in hopes of staying alive.