Today we have a loaded NFL Week 6 Sunday slate on tap with 12-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 43)

The Colts (2-3) just came up short against the Jaguars 37-34 but managed to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. Conversely, the Titans (1-3) just secured their first win of the season, crushing the Dolphins 31-12 and winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public is all over the Colts with 68% of spread bets backing Indianapolis. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the line completely flip toward the Titans +1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Tennessee, as the line has moved drastically in their direction despite being the unpopular side. The Titans are only receiving 32% of spread bets but 40% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Tennessee enjoys a notable “rest vs tired” advantage as they are coming off a bye while the Colts played Sunday and are now playing their second straight road game. Favorites off a bye are 170-138 ATS (55%) with an 8% ROI since 2005. The Titans also have buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (1-3) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (4-1). Those looking to follow the sharp Tennessee move but wary of laying points in what might be a close game could instead elect to play the Titans on the moneyline at -145.

1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (-6.5, 38) at New England Patriots

The Texans (4-1) just outlasted the Bills 23-20, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (1-4) just lost to the Dolphins 15-10, losing outright as 2-point home favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with the Texans and 79% of spread bets are laying the points. This lopsided support pushed Houston up from -6.5 to -7. However, once it was announced that Drake Maye would make his first NFL start in place of the ineffective Jacoby Brissett we saw some sharp Patriots buyback at the key number of +7, dropping the line back down to +6.5. Essentially, we are now back to where we opened, which is evidence of a sharp line freeze on the Patriots as the line has barely budged despite the Texans being such a popular play. New England is only receiving 21% of spread bets, making them one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day. Big dogs getting 6-points or more are 16-2 ATS (89%) this season. The Patriots have correlative betting value as a roughly touchdown dog in a low total game (38), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. C.J. Stroud is just 4-9 ATS (31%) in his career as a favorite. New England also has buy-low value as a dog who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high favorite who won and covered.

8:20 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 47) at New York Giants

The Bengals (1-4) just fell to the Ravens 41-38 in overtime, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Giants (2-3) just shocked the Seahawks 29-20, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as an early 5.5-point road favorite. This number quickly got adjusted down to -4.5 and now we’re seeing the Bengals down to -3.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has come down in favor of the Giants plus the points. This movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the Bengals (77% of spread bets), yet the sharp reverse line movement is siding with the unpopular home dog Giants. New York is one of the top contrarian plays of the week, receiving only 23% of spread bets in a nationally televised, heavily bet Sunday Night Football showdown. Primetime dogs are 126-102 ATS (55%) since 2020. Brian Daboll is 21-11 ATS (66%) as a dog as head coach of the Giants. Daniel Jones is 29-22 ATS (57%) as a dog. New York has the better defense, allowing 20.8 PPG (11th) while the Bengals are giving up 29 PPG (31st). The total opened at 45 and rose as high as 49 before some sharp under buyback dropped it back down to 47. Some shops are even down to 46.5. Primetime unders are 10-9 this season and 170-116 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. When a primetime game has a total of 47 or more the under is 24-11 (69%) with a 28% ROI since 2022.

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