Week 12 NFL Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

Here are my Week 12 NFL best bets:

 

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers (-2; 47.5)

This was one heck of a playoff game last year and two teams that entered this season with high expectations. At this point, I would say there is one major similarity: both of these defenses are overrated.

For the 49ers, it’s largely based on the injuries. They are still missing All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga, top-tier linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and now edge rusher Nick Bosa is questionable this week after being unable to finish last week’s game. All of this bodes well for the Packers offense, which is as healthy as they have been all year. Love will make plays all over the field when Bosa is missing, just like Geno Smith was able to last week.

On the Packers side, it is more a problem of talent. Yes, Jaire Alexander is out again, but the rest of the defense has been healthy and ineffective. The Bears were able to move up and down the field last week against this defense, something that they have rarely be able to do this year. Now the 9ers enter a must-win spot with Kittle expecting to be back and the healthiest version of McCaffery we have seen all year.

Much like the playoff game last year, I expect points. Let’s hit the over before it ticks up to 48 or higher.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Over 47.5

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (Pick ’em; 47.5)

The Seahawks had one of the odder bye weeks I’ve ever seen. They cut their leading tackler and had their starting center retire. All that did not seem to matter in one of the best on-field efforts we have seen from the Seahawks this season, winning outright in San Francisco. Mike Macdonald seems to have worked out this defense while ruffling a few feathers, and it sure seemed like they turned the corner in that game against the 49ers. I expect another solid defensive effort.

The Seahawks offense should also have success in this spot against a Cardinals team that struggled to create pressure. Once Bosa was out last week, Seattle was able to effectively move the football and the offensive line with have both tackles in for just the second time this season.

I also want to fade the Cardinals here. They are at or close to their possible market high at this point but have had multiple fortuitous situations this year, including the last four games, all wins, where they had back-to-back FG walk-offs in games where the Chargers and Dolphins left points on the field and they got to face two games that both were in “quit” situations.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Seahawks PK

Prop Plays

Cooper Rush Over 208.5 Passing Yards

This Cowboys team is built for quarterbacks to throw for yards. They do not have a good enough defense to keep games close and no running game to move the ball on the ground. That’s a perfect storm for playing QBs over yards when the opposing defense is gettable. That is exactly what we get this week facing Washington. Rush threw for 354 yards last week versus Houston. 208.5 is simply too low.

De’Von Achane Over 66.5 Rush Yards          

Let’s run in back with Achane, who is clearly the #1 in this backfield. The Patriots have allowed a rusher to go over this total in five of the last six games. The only Under was D’Andre Swift for the Bears in a game they seemed disinterested in playing. Achane is a great candidate for a ladder here, as the Pats have given up over 100 yards to Tank Bigsby and Tony Pollard during that stretch.

Other Plays:

Justin Herbert Over 254.5 Passing Yards
Brian Robinson Jr Over 71.5 Rush Yards

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