Week 9 College Football: Boise State vs. UNLV

After two games on Tuesday, two on Wednesday, and two on Thursday, college football fans will be treated to a bonus game on Friday, as three are on the schedule. The game of the night is unquestionably Boise State vs. UNLV, as there is a lot on the line for the Broncos in Sin City.

Two Power Four games are on the docket as well, as Louisville battles Boston College and Rutgers draws USC. A fun night of football to serve as the appetizer for another huge slate on Saturday.

 

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Boise State Broncos (-3, 66) at UNLV Rebels

10:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)

There is a lot on the line for Boise State as a team and as individuals. The highest-ranked conference champions get byes in the College Football Playoff and this is Boise State’s biggest remaining game. The Broncos are favored by 31, 22.5, 22, 28, and 19 in my College Football Power Ratings the rest of the way, so this is their biggest test before possibly running it back against UNLV down the line in the conference title game.

It is also a huge game for Ashton Jeanty, as the Heisman favorite takes on a top 50 UNLV defense by yards per play allowed and borderline top 25 run defense. The Rebels are 26th in yards per carry allowed and 20th in rush defense with 104.4 yards per game allowed on the ground.

Jeanty has 1,248 yards on 126 carries for 9.9 yards per pop and 17 rushing touchdowns. UNLV has 16 rushing TDs spread across eight different guys. But UNLV also has 16 pass TDs and Hajj-Malik Williams has 10 of them to go along with a team-high four rushing scores. Boise’s Maddux Madsen has a 12/2 TD/INT ratio, so he’s more than held up his end as well.

It will also be a big test for the Boise State defense, as UNLV ranks 21st in yards per play. Of course, the Broncos have the second-best offense in the nation in that department, so this could be a high-octane, up-and-down affair at Allegiant Stadium.

And, frankly, that’s the way I would look. UNLV has an impressive resume, but they also gave up 44 points to Syracuse and 34 to Utah State, which is the highest-rated offense they’ve played to this point by yards per play. They did neutralize Kansas, but the Jayhawks are playing much better offensively in October with 7.4 yards per play, so they seem to be figuring it out under new OC Jeff Grimes.

Boise State gave up 30 to Utah State themselves and gave up 82 points in the first two games of the season against Georgia Southern and Oregon. This is a game built for fireworks on the fast track.

Pick: Over 66

Other Friday Games

Louisville (-6.5, 53.5) at Boston College: The early game on Friday is the one on the ESPN family of networks with ESPN2 billing. BC has struggled for a while now navigating the Thomas Castellanos injury, as they haven’t exceeded 21 points in the last five games. Louisville is just 4-3, but there’s no shame in their losses to Notre Dame, SMU, and Miami. I lean Cardinals at 6.5, but it’s a stay away at 7 or higher. I’m not even sure if it’s a great play at 6.5.

Rutgers at USC (-14.5, 56): The market told us that it didn’t believe in Rutgers last week when UCLA took a bunch of one-sided money and then won outright. But, I’m not sure many believe in USC or Lincoln Riley at this point in time either. The 14.5 feels like a lot when you consider what we’ve seen from the Trojans in the more physical Big Ten. I lean Under 56 here, where Rutgers can run the ball enough to slow this game down and play a little bit of defense, but the passing game is non-existent. That said, the Rutgers defense has been quite poor in Big Ten play, so it’s nothing more than a lean unless it keeps getting bet up to something like 58.5.

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