Week 10 College Football: Louisiana vs. Texas State

We’re all pretty used to Tuesday night college football by this point and we’ll get more of it here in Week 10. A trio of games kicks off the week on the gridiron, with two from Conference USA and one from the Sun Belt.

New Mexico State vs. FIU, Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston State, and Louisiana vs. Texas State are the three that we get and one definitely stands out, as the Ragin’ Cajuns and Bobcats are fighting for the Sun Belt West Division top spot and bowl placement. Sam Houston State is bowl-eligible, but none of the other three teams look likely to make one.

 

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So, we’ll start with the game of the night and hit on the other two as well.

For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 10 Hub.

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Texas State Bobcats (-4, 57.5)

7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Louisiana’s only loss of the season came against Tulane in a 41-33 game that saw the Ragin’ Cajuns outgain the Green Wave by nearly 60 yards. Louisiana also has a win over Wake Forest to go with an unblemished 3-0 record in league play with a set of 10-point wins.

Texas State gave one away against Sam Houston State and also lost by three at home against Arizona State back in September. Last time out, the Bobcats tripped up against a suddenly much-improved Old Dominion squad. GJ Kinne’s team has been a bit of a disappointment this season, if we’re being honest. But, they are favored here and the schedule is set up well to make a big push for a spot in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

Louisiana is actually a top-20 offense in yards per play, as OC turned head coach Michael Desormeaux has his best unit in Lafayette. The Ragin’ Cajuns went 6-7 in each of his first two seasons, but they only need one more to get to seven victories this year. It is, however, worth noting that the Ragin’ Cajuns had 7.3 YPP in non-conference action, but have just 6.1 in league play. They even racked up 7.5 YPP in that win over Wake Forest, but have struggled with teams that have more familiarity against their scheme.

Texas State, on the other hand, has 6.7 YPP against Sun Belt competition, despite under five yards per play last time out against the Monarchs. The big difference between these two teams is on defense, where the Bobcats have allowed just 4.8 yards per play and rank in the top 20. Louisiana is better than the national average and has only allowed 0.31 YPP more than Texas State in Sun Belt action, but Texas State’s defense has been really spectacular for most of the season.

Both teams are solid and I think they’re pretty comparable. I’m expecting a close game in this one. My line is Texas State -2, so getting north of 3 is nice. I do think the Bobcats will play better than they played against Old Dominion, but I also think 4 is a little rich.

Pick: Louisiana +4

Other Tuesday Games

New Mexico State at FIU (-9.5, 43.5): CBS Sports Network has this 7 p.m. ET kickoff at Pitbull Stadium. New Mexico State is 129th in yards per play on offense and 118th in YPP on defense. They’ve been better in C-USA play on defense, but have averaged under 4.5 yards per play on offense.

FIU isn’t a very good football team either, and they’re somehow a negative YPP team in conference play, even though they’ve held opponents to just 4.84 YPP. These are two very bad offensive teams. My power ratings say I should like FIU (-12.5), so that’s my lean, but not an official bet, as this is not a team favored by this much often. They were favored by nearly a TD at UTEP two games ago and lost outright.

Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston State (-10.5, 45.5): I’m guessing that Hunter Watson will be good to go for Sam Houston State this week given that the line has ticked up over 10. Jase Bauer is clearly a downgrade. I don’t think many have noticed because the offense is so bad, but LA Tech has a top-15 defense by yards per play. Strength of schedule certainly plays a role,  but they’ve been good on that side of the ball.

Sam Houston State is a top-40 team in defensive YPP. Neither offense is any good. I like the Under 45.5 here. The teams are T-95th (LT) and T-119th (SHSU) in plays of 20+ yards. Explosives should be few and far between.

Pick: Under 45.5

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