Mike Somich’s Keeneland Picks:
The leaves are changing, and that means it is time for Keeneland! This has become one of my favorite meets of the fall season. You combine a great location with great racing and Breeders’ Cup bids on the line! Let’s look at today’s Keeneland picks.
TCA Stakes, Race #7, Keeneland
The ladies take center stage, sprinting seven furlongs over the dirt in a key prep race for the Breeders’ Cup. One of my favorites is back in action, #3 Brightwork. She was awesome in her three-year-old debut and will look to build on that effort against tougher company today. She has enough speed to sit close to the lead and pounce around the turn. If she takes the step forward I expect here, she wins.
#4 Spirit Wind is the main threat to Brightwork. She’s got speed on speed and will try to go right to the front and play catch me if you can. There is not an abundance of pace in this race so she does have the opportunity to shake clear. Then it is all about if she can hold off Brightwork.
#1 Clearly Unhinged will try to deny Spirit Wind the rail from the jump, if she can, she’s dangerous. She has won from just off the pace before, but it will be tough for her if she is forced to adjust to the outside of the speed here instead of staying on the rail and making a turn move.
#6 Zeiltos is your closer in the field. Her race will largely be determined by the pace the three horses above show. If they hook up on the front end, then she will be flying late. She is a likely trifecta player without the pace but needs them to go fast early to win.
Keeneland Picks: 3-4-1-6
Bets: $50 Win #3
Breeders’ Futurity, Race #9, Keeneland
The two-year-olds are the feature event of the day with Derby hopefuls heading to the post. #1 Ferocious will try to rebound after looking for Chancer McPatrick (the favorite at Belmont at the Big A’s feature today) and try two turns for the first time. The distance should not be a problem and the post should help this young colt to go right to the front in a race loaded with speed.
#4 Handsome Pants is an intriguing price at 10-1 for a trainer, Kenny McPeak, who makes a habit of winning these races. He has already handled today’s distance in his debut win, and he wants to run from the back of the pack. Both of those should help him today with an expected fast pace.
#5 East Avenue looked like a monster while debuting at 2nd tier track Ellis Park. He takes a huge step up in class today, but he is bred to love the added distance, and Brendan Walsh is great with two-year-olds. The big question mark is the style. He will be hard-pressed if the goal is to go gate to wire.
#8 Big Boat is the big bomb that I like in this race. He won nicely on debut, going six furlongs and did so coming from off the pace. As I’ve mentioned, it should be a quick pace and that means it could very well set up for this 20-1 shot to roll home late.
Keeneland Picks: 1-4-5-8
Bets: $5 Trifecta 1 / 4,5,8 / 4,5,8
Spot Plays:
Keeneland Race #10 – $50 Win #2
Keeneland Race #8 – $50 Win #8
