MLB Best Bets and Props:
We are in for another amazing Sunday, with plenty of games available for MLB best bets and props. Like always, be extra careful when checking lineups and monitoring player news due to the unpredictable nature of getaway games. Nearly every major league team plays during the afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled for 12:10 PM (ET) between the Baltimore Orioles and the Detroit Tigers.
Below is my favorite MLB value bet for Sunday, September 15. Always make sure to price shop for the best odds available.
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My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
4:10 pm ET
I’m not going to lie: The player prop market is not very inspiring today. That said, one line seemed to be off.
Zac Gallen is listed for Over/Under 6.5 strikeouts versus the Milwaukee Brewers, and I think it should have been set at 5.5.
Gallen has gone Over this total in four consecutive games against some fairly easy targets for strikeouts, such as Boston and San Francisco. However, just before that, the Arizona right-hander was Under in nine consecutive outings.Â
Milwaukee could prove to be a slightly more difficult task having posted the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball versus right-handers in the last 14 days and the sixth-lowest chase rate.
In addition, only two of the last 17 right-handed starters to face the Brewers have gone Over 6.5 strikeouts. Is that number cherry-picked? Yes. But it still proves my point.
The bottom line is that Gallen’s strikeout prop seems a bit high. At current pricing, the Under seems like a solid value.
MLB Best Bet: Zac Gallen Under 6.5 K (-125)
*Would take Under 6.5 K up to -140
