MLB Best Bets Today June 4
From eight games on Monday to 15 games on Tuesday. Everybody takes the field today with nothing but night games on the ledger. We’re lighter on top-tier pitching matchups tonight than we were yesterday, even with a larger sample size of games, but there are some compelling hurlers on the hill, including a couple of MLB debuts.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Top MLB Resources:
Catch a new edition of the Double Play Podcast with Dustin Swedelson and yours truly Monday and Thursday.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 4:
New York Mets (-135, 9) at Washington Nationals
6:45 p.m. ET
I was interested in the Nationals before Trevor Williams was scratched and I remain interested in them with the MLB debut of DJ Herz. The Mets will send out longtime tweener David Peterson for his second MLB start of the year as he comes back from hip surgery.
Herz is a really intriguing arm to me, especially because the Nationals have found success this season with Williams, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker. Their pitcher development has taken a big leap forward this season. Williams did go to Driveline Baseball and they had a huge hand in his success, but what the Nationals are doing on the starting pitcher front seems to be contagious.
Recently, it seems like they made a tweak with Herz. He walked seven batters in his May 8 start after walking nine batters over his previous two starts and 24 total in his first six outings. Herz had a start skipped and has only walked five batters over his last 15.1 innings with 23 strikeouts. He’s allowed three runs on eight hits.
Deception is the name of the game for Herz and the Mets are sixth in O-Swing% per Statcast this season, so I think they’re going to swing and miss a good bit here and also make some weak contact expanding the zone. Herz has definitely had some high walk rates in the minors, but he’s also racked up a lot of strikeouts and has posted low ERAs despite the free passes. That tells me that he induces a lot of weak contact.
He’s a lefty that most of the Mets haven’t seen and one who hides the ball well, plus he has good arm action on his changeup per the scouting reports.
Peterson threw the ball okay in his first start against the Dodgers, but threw a lot of fastballs and I’m never a fan of that strategy with a guy whose best pitch is the slider. He gave up 10 hard-hit balls and two Barrels in that outing, so the command wasn’t quite there and even the Nationals offense can take advantage of something like that.
Also, the Mets bullpen is up against it here. Adam Ottavino and Jake Diekman have worked back-to-back days and Diekman has worked four of six in the absence of Edwin Diaz. Reed Garrett would be working a 4-in-6 and so would Danny Young, who was just called up last Wednesday. Dedniel Nunez has also appeared twice in four days since being called up. Drew Smith just came off the IL. This is a pretty thin group right now.
With Washington’s pen in better shape and a really intriguing debutant in Herz against a known commodity in Peterson, I think the Nationals are worth the look tonight. Shop around because other books have a better number on the Nats.
Pick: Nationals +114
St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros (-162, 9)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Cardinals and Astros played a fun one last night and we’ll see what they have in store for an encore with Andre Pallante against Spencer Arrighetti in tonight’s tilt. I’m looking at a player prop in this one, so it will be a handicap of Arrighetti against the Cardinals offense.
The Cardinals are swinging it pretty well right now, but there are a lot of guys that swing and miss in this lineup. They’re having a ton of success on batted balls with a BABIP north of .300 over the last 30 days, but they’ve still struck out at a 23% clip. Most notably, while they are second in wRC+ against righties over the last month, they still have a 24.2% K% in that split.
Arrighetti has a 29.9% K% against righties and a 22.1% K% against lefties. The lefties he’s likely to face tonight are Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Matt Carpenter, and Michael Siani. Burleson and Donovan have done a good job of avoiding strikeouts against righties, sitting around 15.5% and 16.9% in the K% department. However, Gorman (37.4%), Carpenter (29.5%), and Siani (25.6%) have had much less success avoiding strikeouts.
St. Louis doesn’t chase a lot, but they will swing and miss a lot in the zone. Arrighetti’s 80.9% Z-Contact% ranks ninth among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. The guys ahead of him? Cole Ragans, Tarik Skubal, Jared Jones, Tanner Bibee, Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson, Clarke Schmidt, and Garrett Crochet. Most of those guys have high strikeout rates this season.
The Cardinals have the ninth-lowest Z-Contact%. Arrighetti’s pitch efficiency is a little bit of a concern, but he’s gone Over 5.5 Strikeouts in five of nine starts and each of his last three. At reduced juice, I think it’s a worthwhile position to take.
Pick: Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Cincinnati Reds (-135, 10.5) at Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
The Reds and Rockies square off today with Frankie Montas and Ty Blach scheduled to be on the bump. Montas comes in with 33 strikeouts in 47 innings of work and 12 strikeouts over his last 21.2 innings since settling back in after a couple weeks on the IL. Blach has 17 strikeouts in 34.2 innings pitched this season.
That should make for a ton of balls in play in Denver this evening. The Montas experiment has had mixed results for the Reds, as he comes in with a 4.60 ERA, 4.72 xERA, and a 5.07 FIP. His GB% is down this season and his HR currently sits at a career-high as a starter, so I’m certainly concerned about that heading into this start. Also, he’s got an elevated BB% at 8.7%, his highest mark in a non-COVID year since 2017 when he only worked 32 innings in relief.
Blach comes in with a .313 wOBA against, but a .349 xwOBA. His 12% K% ranks in the Bottom 2% of pitchers and his .299 xBA ranks in the Bottom 4%. He’s ripe for regression with his .274 actual BAA. The Reds are uber-aggressive on the basepaths, so hits that Blach allows could very well become doubles or even triples in this one.
While yesterday’s blowout win for the Reds came both bullpens a chance to avoid using their top relievers, I’m still not enamored with either one of these bullpens. The breeze forecasted to be blowing in should be calming down as the game goes along as well, so I’m not very worried about that either.
Pick: Reds/Rockies Over 10.5 (-120)
