Strong Three-Week Stretch for the MLB Bullpen Systems
In the first few weeks of the MLB season, our widely-regarded bullpen systems weren’t performing up to expectations, and some VSiN subscribers were becoming vocally anxious about it. As I always try to do, I insisted on patience, as to me, the concept of consistently betting teams with better MLB bullpens is not a “fly-by-night” system. It is a foundational belief that games are priced by oddsmakers primarily by the starting pitcher matchups and lineups, not by the group of pitchers that often work the last four innings or more of any given game.
That is a big miss in my eyes, and the underpriced bullpen differences often decide the outcomes of contests. Hopefully, everyone has been stuck by the systems, as they have all enjoyed a tremendous three-week run and are currently surging. The “easiest system” is in the black for the first time, and we enjoyed our best single day of the young season to open May, an 11-3, +9.52-unit performance. Let’s update the early 2024 season records of all of the MLB Bullpen Systems.
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One key point that every bettor needs to realize about these bullpen systems is that even with a 0% ROI, they still provide a tremendous advantage over simply randomly stabbing at games. The average baseball bettor performs at -3.1% ROI over the course of a season. As I stressed before, this line of thinking is foundational and gives bettors a consistent advantage.
I missed last week’s update due to other commitments, but I will try to keep up the regular full updates on the bullpen systems for the next six months. However, recognize that you can get the continuously updated and qualified bullpen systems, plus much more, on our daily MLB Analytics Reports for the entire season.
After numerous inquiries last year on using this valuable info, I shared with readers THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. You will see that by simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units. That is a pretty nice 2.2% return for a very simple yet very fundamentally sound methodology. The ROI for this year is a tiny bit over 0% after winning nicely the past few weeks. Looking at the “easiest way” results since my last bullpen update by day:
Monday 4/22: 7-4, +1.54 units
Tuesday 4/23: 7-7, -0.8 units
Wednesday 4/24: 10-5, +4.66 units
Thursday 4/25: 7-3, +1.48 units
Friday 4/26: 5-9, -5.6 units
Saturday 4/27: 7-6, -0.2 units
Sunday 4/28: 5-6, -1.8 units
Monday 4/29: 5-6, -1.3 units
Tuesday 4/30: 10-4, +5.81 units
Wednesday 5/1: 11-3, +9.52 units
Thursday 5/2: 2-3, -1.2 units
Friday 5/3: 8-6, +0.2 units
Saturday 5/4: 7-6, +0.61 units
Sunday 5/5: 8-6, +1.27 units
Overall, the last two weeks produced +14.2 units of profit, putting us into positive territory for the season. It took a little while to reach this point, but VSiN readers who have followed me for years know that I preach persistence when it comes to this method of wagering. A foundational belief drives this system, and peaks and valleys are part of it, but long-term winning is the goal.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to the MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday 5/5:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
- Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. Results have picked up nicely for the last three weeks in a row. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even though it performs a bit below its 2023 standards.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
- A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 29-14 for -5.46 units.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
- In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are off to a better start, 21-9 for +2.79 units and a ROI of 9.3%. However, the ROI dropped 29% over the past 28 days.
Overpriced better bullpen without its big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
- In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 17-11 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -6.66 units, a season-low ROI of -23.8%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
- A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced an 82-90 record for +4.75 units (ROI 2.8%). This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
Worse bullpens struggle to extend winning streaks
- In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 28-36 for +1.1 units after a poor two-week stretch of 14-18 for -5.91 units. The three-game teams are 20-23 for -1.63 units, our first touch into negative territory, where they are expected to remain. The three-game angle was 6-10 for -5.13 units since 4/22.
Better bullpen teams were capable of building lengthy winning streaks
- In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 43-31 for +3.31 units (4.5% ROI) through Sunday, 5/5, after a great 22-19, +9.51 units stretch over the last three weeks.
Better bullpen teams thwarted potentially lengthy losing streaks
- Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 43 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/5, and these teams are 24-19 for -0.21 units.
These simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that were accumulated in games through Sunday, May 5:
Key MLB Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 5/5)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. NY YANKEES: 2.27
2. CLEVELAND: 2.54
3. SEATTLE: 2.72
4. NY METS: 2.9
5. DETROIT: 3.03
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. TORONTO: 5.31
29. LA ANGELS: 5.24
28. COLORADO: 5.15
27. SAN FRANCISCO: 5.11
26. TAMPA BAY: 5.06
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. CLEVELAND: 1.03
2. SEATTLE: 1.07
3. NY YANKEES: 1.09
4. LA DODGERS: 1.09
5. BALTIMORE: 1.11
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.58
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.48
28. MIAMI: 1.47
27. TAMPA BAY: 1.44
26. PHILADELPHIA: 1.44
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. NY METS: 11.52
2. MINNESOTA: 11.04
3. CLEVELAND: 10.27
4. PHILADELPHIA: 10.08
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.99
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. KANSAS CITY: 7.13
29. COLORADO: 7.22
28. ARIZONA: 7.23
27. TORONTO: 7.61
26. NY YANKEES: 7.75
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. BALTIMORE: 0.74
2. NY YANKEES: 0.74
3. LA DODGERS: 0.84
4. CLEVELAND: 0.92
5. PITTSBURGH: 0.98
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. DETROIT: 1.75
29. TORONTO: 1.68
28. MILWAUKEE: 1.66
27. LA ANGELS: 1.61
26. COLORADO: 1.58
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since 4/21:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. BOSTON: +10 points
1. NY YANKEES: +10 points
3. TEXAS: +9
4. LA DODGERS: +8
5. OAKLAND: +6
5. MINNESOTA: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. TORONTO: -9 points
1. DETROIT: -9
3. ATLANTA: -8
4. TAMPA BAY: -6
4. LA ANGELS: -6
Steve’s Current MLB Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of May 6)
Rank – Team – MLB Bullpen PR
1. LA DODGERS: 23
2. NY YANKEES: 20
3. MINNESOTA: 19
4. SEATTLE: 18
5. CLEVELAND: 17
6. MILWAUKEE: 16
7. NY METS: 15
8. BALTIMORE: 14
9. OAKLAND: 11
10. ATLANTA: 10
11. HOUSTON: 7
12. SAN DIEGO: 7
13. BOSTON: 6
14. DETROIT: 6
15. PITTSBURGH: 6
16. ST. LOUIS: 5
17. TEXAS: 4
18. PHILADELPHIA: 4
19. SAN FRANCISCO: 4
20. ARIZONA: 3
21. KANSAS CITY: 3
22. CHICAGO CUBS: 2
23. TAMPA BAY: 1
24. WASHINGTON: 0
25. MIAMI: -1
26. CINCINNATI: -2
27. LA ANGELS: -2
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -4
29. TORONTO: -10
30. COLORADO: -15
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are five teams on 3+ game winning streak (BAL, NYY, TB, PHI, LAD) and five teams on a 3+ game losing skids (DET, ATL, NYM, CIN, SF).
