Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with only eight games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
Top MLB Resources:
12:35 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (-145, 7.5)
After dropping the first two games of this four-game series, the Yankees (34-17) bounced back with a 7-3 win last night, taking care of business as -160 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Mariners (27-23) hand the ball to righty Luis Castillo (4-5, 3.28 ERA) and the Yankees counter with fellow righty Luis Gil (5-1, 2.39 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -135 home favorite and Seattle a +115 road dog. Sharps have laid the wood with the Yankees to earn the series split, steaming New York up from -135 to -145. The Yankees are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a ten-cent steam move in their favor. The Bronx Bombers will lean on their superior offense, hitting .255 with 73 homers and 247 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .228 with 57 homers and 191 runs scored. We’ve also seen this total fall from 8 to 7.5. When the total falls at least a half run, favorites are 145-93 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. Gil has a 0.74 ERA in four May starts (all wins), allowing only 2 earned runs over 24.1 innings pitched. He has a 1.64 ERA at home compared to 3.00 on the road. The Yankees are 17-8 home. The Mariners are 12-13 on the road.
1:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-115, 9.5) at Cincinnati Reds
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Reds (20-29) won the opener 2-0, cashing as +105 home dogs. Then the Padres (26-26) roared back with a 7-3 win yesterday, taking care of business as -125 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Padres go with righty Matt Waldron (2-5, 5.00 ERA) and the Reds trot out fellow righty Frankie Montas (2-3, 4.37 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -105 odds. Sharps have sided with the Padres to earn the series win, driving San Diego up from -105 to -115. The Padres are only receiving 56% of moneyline bets but 77% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. San Diego has the better bats, hitting .258 with 52 homers and 236 runs scored compared to Cincinnati hitting .215 with 44 homers and 200 runs scored. Road favorites are 143-104 (58%) with a 3% ROI this season. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 77-59 (57%) with a 6% ROI. San Diego also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Waldron has a 3.60 ERA on the road compared to 6.75 on the road. He has pitched well his last two starts, allowing only three earned runs in 10.3 innings pitched. Montas has a 4.60 ERA in three May starts (all losses), allowing eight earned runs over 15.2 innings pitched.
2:20 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs (-115, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Cubs (27-23) took the opener 4-3 in extra innings, walking off as +105 home dogs. Then the Braves (28-18) bounced back with a 9-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -130 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Braves start AJ Smith-Shawver, who is making his 2024 debut after going 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in 2023. Meanwhile, the Cubs rebuttal with righty Ben Brown (1-1, 3.57 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -115 road favorite and Chicago a -105 road dog. The public is rushing to the window to back the Braves at a short chalk price. However, despite 71% of moneyline bets backing Atlanta we’ve seen this line completely flip to Chicago -115. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of the Cubs, with pros backing the unpopular home favorite. Chicago is only receiving 29% of moneyline bets but 40% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Teams with a winning record coming off a loss, like the Cubs here, are 96-58 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season. Ryan Additon, the home plate ump, is 58% to the home team historically. Pros also seem to be leaning under, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 8.5. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from center at Wrigley Field.
