VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, August 7
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 7, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: LA DODGERS, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, MINNESOTA, TORONTO, NY YANKEES, SAN FRANCISCO
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Highly-priced better bullpen teams were just 11-9 this past seven days and lost another -8.81 units. Now, in games this season through Sunday 8/6 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 195-113 record, but for -64.55 units. This is an R.O.I. of -21%!
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE ATLANTA, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE BOSTON, FADE TEXAS
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 45-49 for -65.82 units! Even though the R.O.I. on this system is shrinking steadily, for the season, it remains at -70%!
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE BOSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a phenomenal 19-8 (+14.15 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 264-259 for +67.36 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12.9%!
System Matches: LA DODGERS, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After an 8-8 (+2.44 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 178-174 for -31.08 units, an R.O.I. of -8.8%. After a 6-4 result (+3.74 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-84 for -17.51 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -11.4%.
System Matches:
2-game – FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE OAKLAND
4-game – FADE WASHINGTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 170-110 for +28.5 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 10.2%.
System Matches: MINNESOTA, TORONTO, TEXAS
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 7/31 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 173-132 for +9.94 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 84-56 for +18.13 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 13%.
System Matches:
2-game – ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO
3+ game – CINCINNATI, BOSTON
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match: FADE TORONTO
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE COLORADO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE DETROIT, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE OAKLAND
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Matches: NY METS, MILWAUKEE
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 232-181 (56.2%) for +51.2 units and an R.O.I. of 12.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: BOSTON
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 61-45 outright (+10.90 units, ROI: 10.3%).
System Match: MIAMI
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 86-83 (+17.61 units, ROI: 10.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: NY METS, BOSTON
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 13-38 (-13.5 units, ROI: -26.5%) in their last 51 tries.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (+20), CINCINNATI (+17), PITTSBURGH (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES (+19), TEXAS (+33), SAN FRANCISCO (+28)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES-CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER 7.5 (+0.8), TEXAS-OAKLAND OVER 8.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON-PHILADELPHIA UNDER 10 (-0.8), MIAMI-CINCINNATI UNDER 10.5 (-1.2), KANSAS CITY-BOSTON UNDER 10 (-0.6)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>>See situational records for each team.
(951) LOS ANGELES-NL (64-46) at (952) SAN DIEGO (55-57)
Trend: LAD not as good in DAY games (15-19, -13.50 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD better against RH starters (48-28, +8.00 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not often a ML underdog (8-7, +2.60 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: San Diego not good bet against RH starters (33-40, -24.17 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
(953) WASHINGTON (49-63) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (61-51)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (27-29, +17.01 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not good at NIGHT (24-39, -2.50 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (32-33, -10.78 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Season series tied at 3-3 (ROAD team is 4-2)
(955) MIAMI (58-55) at (956) CINCINNATI (59-55)
Trend: Miami not great against NL competition (35-40, -10.27 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami good as ML favorite (39-21, +9.38 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami trending UNDER in non-NL East games (33-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati pretty good against NL East/West (28-23, +8.03 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (36-30, +12.35 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending OVER at NIGHT (38-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(957) ATLANTA (70-39) at (958) PITTSBURGH (50-61)
Trend: Atlanta good for bettors on the ROAD (33-19, +5.00 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL competition (47-19, +17.55 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER in NIGHT games (39-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (35-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(959) CHICAGO-NL (58-54) at (960) NEW YORK-NL (50-61)
Trend: NYM bad bet as ML favorite (40-35, -15.17 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (11-26, -24.15 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (15-31 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(961) COLORADO (44-67) at (962) MILWAUKEE (60-53)
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (27-48, -11.20 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (44-35, +5.12 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(963) MINNESOTA (59-54) at (964) DETROIT (49-62)
Trend: Minnesota good record against division (21-15, -3.85 units)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Detroit trending OVER in NIGHT games (32-22 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(965) KANSAS CITY (36-77) at (966) BOSTON (57-54)
Trend: Kansas City bad bet at NIGHT (19-49, -21.95 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Boston good against AL Central/West teams (23-18, +11.50 units)
System Match: BOSTON
(967) TORONTO (63-50) at (968) CLEVELAND (54-58)
Trend: Toronto UNDER in NIGHT games (22-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland not as good against LH starters (17-22, -14.05 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
(969) NEW YORK-AL (58-54) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (45-68)
Trend: NYY not as good in NIGHT games (31-40, -15.05 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (15-32, -18.05 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(971) TEXAS (66-46) at (972) OAKLAND (32-80)
Trend: Texas trending UNDER in ROAD games (23-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Oakland trending UNDER in division games (13-18 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Oakland better bet in NIGHT games (24-40, +0.40 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
(973) SAN FRANCISCO (61-51) at (974) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-57)
Trend: San Francisco good bet at NIGHT (37-24, +8.80 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (22-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA better against RH starters (45-39, +3.48 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA not as good against NL teams (14-20, -11.20 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA trending UNDER against NL opponents (13-19 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #7: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets, Mon 8/7-Wed 8/9
Trend: NY METS are 1-6 (16.7%, -11.6 units) in their last seven games vs. Chicago Cubs
The R.O.I. on this trend is -165.7%.
System Match: FADE NY METS
Series #8: Colorado at Milwaukee, Mon 8/7-Wed 8/9
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 11-2 (84.6%, +9.7 units) in the last 13 games between Colorado & Milwaukee
The R.O.I. on this trend is 74.6%.
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Series #9: Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Mon 8/7-Thu 8/10
Trend: Pittsburgh has lost its L8 (0%, -8 units) games vs. Atlanta
The R.O.I. on this trend is -100%.
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow, 8/8)
