NFL Week 7 Picks:

The correction I’ve been suggesting finally came. It was the Year of the Underdog for a while in the NFL, but road favorites went 9-0 in Week 6, polishing off a perfect record on Monday Night Football. Road favorites are actually a perfect 12-0 over the last two weeks. Basically, what we’re finding out is that September is just an extension of the preseason and it takes a little bit of time for everybody to settle in, even on the good teams.

With the big run, favorites are out-covering underdogs on the season, so while we’ve had some big upsets, everything seems to have stabilized now as we head into Week 7, where there are only five road favorites and four of them are in the primetime games on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday.

 

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Favorite, underdog, whatever. I’m just trying to find what I believe are the best bets of the week.

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Here are my Week 7 NFL best bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10/15, 1:00 p.m. PT

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 41.5)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Bills are on a short week to host the Titans on Sunday. Short week off a division game angles may be immune when it comes to games played against Will Levis, but I do like the Titans in this one. Tennessee obviously has a major QB problem, but the defense has played extremely well this season.

After six weeks, the Titans are sixth in EPA/play on defense and have been good against both the run and the pass, sitting 12th in Dropback EPA against and fifth in Rush EPA against. James Cook was hurt enough to miss last week’s game against the Jets and the Bills, despite ranking well in EPA/play, are 15th in yards per play. They just haven’t turned the ball over, as they have two giveaways in six games and turnovers are the biggest negatives when it comes to EPA.

Buffalo is the only team without an interception this season, but they rank 25th in passing yards per game. The lack of wide receivers is a problem and one that I believe will hurt Buffalo in terms of trying to run it up in this one to cover a big number by NFL standards.

The Bills defense is 22nd in Rush EPA, so I would hope that Brian Callahan takes it out of Levis’ hands as much as possible to try and run the rock and condense the game.

Buffalo has played three straight road games against important opponents with the Ravens, Texans, and Jets and now hosts the Titans before a long trip to take on the Seahawks. Could be a bit of a flat spot against an overlooked opponent and I think some stats line up favorably for Tennessee.

Author’s note: Mason Rudolph was announced as the starter Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Titans +8.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 43) at New York Giants

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Division rivals meet in the Meadowlands here, as the Eagles and Giants square off. The Eagles mustered only 20 points coming out of the bye, as they racked up six yards per play, but seemed to lack consistency, as they had a few big explosives in the passing game, but minimal big plays otherwise. They did hold the Browns in check, which is easy to do at this point, but the Giants are a pretty easy offense to contain as well.

Philadelphia comes in ranked 26th in Dropback EPA, but that number should improve against Daniel Jones, who may not have Malik Nabers again this week. The Giants have struggled against the pass as well, but rank top 10 in Rush EPA, so that gives them a chance of shutting down Saquon Barkley and the ground game.

For all of their skill-position talent, the Eagles are under 40% on third down and the Giants are below average as well. Both teams are also under 45% in the red zone. The Eagles also have only two takeaways, so they haven’t been producing a whole lot of short fields to make life easier.

Pick: Under 43

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams (-7, 43)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Davante Adams saga is finished and the Raiders can move on and focus on the guys that are invested in playing for the team. It also means that Las Vegas probably goes back to Gardner Minshew, since he absolutely gives the team a better chance to win.

I’m not sure it matters and I like the Rams for a few reasons here. They’re coming off of a bye, which can’t hurt, but the biggest reason is that LA has played the second-hardest schedule in the NFL per Pro-Football-Reference using the Simple Ratings System. Only Tampa Bay has played a tougher schedule per that metric.

The Rams have played the Lions, Cardinals, 49ers, Bears, and Packers. Minshew is not Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams, or Jordan Love. The supporting cast isn’t nearly as good. The Raiders are the first team outside the top 20 in offensive EPA/play that the Rams will have faced. And, to LA’s credit, they lead the league in Hurry% per PFR, but they’ve only recorded nine sacks because they only really rush with the front four.

I think this is the old “get right game” for the Rams. They get a defense that can’t stop the run, which should help Kyren Williams. Matthew Stafford, all things considered, has played about as well as he can with a 67% completion rate while mostly missing Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Kupp has a good shot to play this week.

It is entirely possible that the Raiders rally with the chief distraction gone, but this is a major coaching mismatch and a QB mismatch as well.

Pick: Rams -7

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