NFL Week 4 Picks from the T Shoe Index:

We went 2-1 on bets I gave out in last week’s NFL articles and almost had the sweep, but the Arizona Cardinals came up short in the final minutes to blow the cover. Still, it was a profitable weekend for us, and if you follow me on X @TShoeIndex, you saw all of my personal bets went 8-4 in Week 3. I am back for more on this fine Tuesday, locked and loaded with updated TSI ratings and projections, so let’s get to some early bets I like for Week 4.

 

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Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans (+1; 37) 

Miami has been a dumpster fire since the minute Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 1. Their numbers since indicate a 7-point drop-off in their power rating. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans are winless and just got shellacked by the Jordan Love-less Green Bay Packers. I think this is the perfect spot to back Tennessee, as TSI projects Titans -3.5 with the aforementioned Tagovailoa on IR. Miami is averaging just 6.5 points per game since Tua’s concussion and have allowed 27.5 ppg in those games. I’m not the world’s biggest Will Levis fan, but if there’s ever a time to back Tennessee, it’s now.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans +1 (Play to -1)

Green Bay Packers (-2.5; 43.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings 

Speaking of the Titans, they just got lit up by Malik Willis’ Packers offense, which in conjunction with the Vikings throttling the Texans (cashing both Vikings +2.5 and Under 46.5 for me), has inflated this total. The numbers since Love’s injury have dictated a TEN POINT adjustment in Packers’ totals in the TSI projections, which brings the projection on this game to just 31.5. These defenses are giving up just 11 ppg so far, and there’s also the Sam Darnold knee injury that we don’t know much about yet, so there’s the potential for this to drop even further. I think getting in on the Under now is a great play. 

Week 4 NFL Pick: Under 43.5 (Play to 42)

For more NFL Week 4 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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