Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 Predictions and Odds:

Jacksonville looked poised to repeat as AFC South Champions last season as the Jaguars were 8-3 after Thanksgiving. Then, as Counting Crows would sing, they were in for “A Long December,” as losses in five of the last six games caused them to miss the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence was playing through a variety of injuries but turned the ball over too much, plus the Jaguars could not run the ball effectively. It was not much better defensively, as they gave up the big play frequently. Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke believe they have made the necessary upgrades at wide receiver and offensive line, plus an almost entirely new defensive coaching staff. 

Offense

Trevor Lawrence signed a five-year, $275 million extension that ties him with Joe Burrow as the highest-paid player in the league. Now, he has to play up to that standard. Better health would be a good start, considering he dealt with injuries to his knee, ankle, and shoulder, plus he had a concussion and was forced to leave three games last season. He also led the NFL with 21 turnovers (14 INT, seven lost fumbles) in 2023. 

 

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The line up front did not do him many favors last season, especially with poor run-blocking. Ezra Cleveland was acquired via late-season trade from Minnesota and Mitch Morse comes in from Buffalo. Despite the poor blocking, Travis Etienne was still able to eclipse 1,000 yards on the ground. 

The Jaguars still lack a true No. 1 receiver, but they have made some additions to help tight end Evan Engram and Christian Kirk, who had his own health issues missing five games. Gabe Davis (Buffalo) replaces Calvin Ridley, and Brian Thomas was drafted in the first round out of LSU. 

Defense

While there were some offensive changes, it is this unit that had the most turnover mainly on the coaching staff. Ryan Nielsen, Atlanta’s defensive coordinator in 2023, comes in to take over the same position. In Nielsen’s lone year in Atlanta, the overall rankings improved from 23rd to 18th in points allowed per game and from 27th to 11th in yards allowed per game. The Falcons also doubled their sack total from 21 to 42. 

Nielsen employs press coverage in the secondary and a four-man rush. Josh Allen, re-signed to a five-year, $141 million deal, and 2022 first overall draft pick Travon Walker combined for 27.5 sacks in 2023. The interior could also get a boost from Arik Armstead (San Francisco). 

The Jaguars defense, especially the secondary, was excellent in forcing turnovers, but not so much at limiting big plays. Tyson Campbell and Ronald Darby are likely to be under fire at corner this season and will be tested early with this new press coverage scheme. 

Outlook

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a two-game lead in the division at the end of November, but could not hold on. Are the 2024 Jaguars the team that started 8-3 or the team that ended 1-5? Lawrence has a good group of receivers to get the ball, but the offensive line is still a major question mark. 

The biggest improvement on this team should be the defensive line with Nielsen now at the helm of the defense. It will need to be elite to mask this highly questionable secondary. 

There is potential for a shaky start, considering the first four games are against playoff teams. The Jaguars went 2-0 in the back-to-back over in London and got that same scenario this year in Weeks 6 and 7. The 8.5-win total is the right number for this club.

Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Under 8.5 wins

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