The New York Jets need a new flight plan
I recently watched the documentary about legendary Hall of Fame New York Yankee catcher Yogi Berra’s life and career. He was an extraordinary man, with incredible statistics and championship rings to his name, along with some funny quotes. During the documentary, one of Yogi’s sayings would appear on screen before explaining another chapter in Yogi’s life. “When you come to a fork in the road, take it,” applies to the 2023 New York Jets. One must wonder which way they will go as they face the dreaded fork. What will the effects of the decision be once taking the fork? Can it go from bad to worse? I think it just might.
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For the past 11 weeks, Jets head coach Robert Saleh would have made Lt. Daniel Kaffee proud defending his quarterback Zach Wilson with the same vigor, passion, and belief as Kaffee defended the two marines in the courtroom scene of A Few Good Men. Jet fans couldn’t handle Saleh’s awkward defense, finding the real truth in what they were watching each week.
After years and years of poor play, Jets fans are resilient, objective and can handle the truth. No matter how Saleh attempted to spin it, Wilson was awful, the Jets offense was awful, and with each word he uttered, his credibility as a leader lessened. His locker room wasn’t buying it—they all knew Saleh was being a compliant company man, trying to prop up a poor, highly valued draft pick for his general manager Joe Douglas. One week after saying Wilson was “actually playing pretty well,” Saleh finally handled the real truth and demoted Wilson to third string, replacing him with Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian.
Making him third string indicates Wilson’s career in New York is officially over. Five years from now, we will be watching the Zach Wilson documentary on Netflix, where Wilson explains to everyone he hated playing in New York and never loved football as he tends to his farm in Utah.
As for Saleh, he appears to feel secure and confident after three seasons, even though he is 3-12 SU against the teams in the AFC East and 0-8 on the road. With Rodgers’ injury and pending return, everyone in Florham Park seems indemnified. Rodger’s injury gives everyone a mulligan, even though the Jets franchise is 6-27 vs the AFC East since 2018, and Saleh, over his three-year reign, hasn’t been able to change this trajectory. Saleh is 15-29 as the head coach of the Jets. His 34% winning percentage is worse than Todd Bowles, who was 24-40 (37%) and an improvement over Adam Gase, who was 9-25 (26%).
Getting benched isn’t easy for any player. Getting benched for a quarterback who has started three games during the 2021 season, who never completed over 50% of his passes while attending the University of Connecticut, and who had one average season at Eastern Kentucky has to be humiliating for Wilson.
Turning to Boyle, Saleh must see something in practice we haven’t seen since Boyle entered the league in 2018 as an undrafted free agent playing alongside Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Boyle is turnover prone, throwing nine interceptions over 120 attempts passing, and struggles to make consistent plays. Boyle isn’t going to string eight to ten good plays together to lead a drive. Something will break down along the way, which will create a turnover mistake, allowing the opposing defense to be offensive. Boyle could make things worse, especially if offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett gives him more latitude with the offense than he did with Wilson. I expect Trevor Siemian to become the Jets starter sooner rather than later.
As bad as Wilson has been, how is Boyle an improvement? Yesterday’s betting market echoed the same belief as the line against the Dolphins this Friday afternoon went from opening as the Jets minus 6.5 to 9.5 and 10 in most books, depending on the vig. This movement forces us to ask, is Wilson worth 3 to 3.5 to the line? We know he isn’t worth anything to the line. However, this line movement indicates the Jets might be playing for their draft position rather than competing for a highly ridiculous playoff berth. Can you imagine talking heads thought the Jets had a chance to make the playoffs after the win over the Giants? Please.
No one can doubt Wilson was bad all season. Since his return from the bye week, he was particularly bad, fumbling the ball, failing to execute easy throws, and failing to convert third downs. Wilson has talent, a strong arm, and is athletic, but he doesn’t have the competitive stamina to work hard week after week. The season is too long for him, which affects his concentration and attention to detail. Wilson cannot do the same things over and over again. He is like a golfer who can hit the hell out of the ball on the range, and his mechanics fall apart once the pressure of the moment sets in. He plays football, but he doesn’t prepare to play football.
The Jets offensive scheme is also very bad—it’s not all on Wilson. They have 37 points the last four weeks, haven’t gained over 18 first downs in any game, and had the Eagles chosen not to throw a pass on third and eight, or the Giants made a field goal, we would be discussing who the Jets would select in the upcoming draft.
Watching the Jets’ offense, you have to ask yourself how good they would have been had Rodgers stayed upright. My answer is better, but still picking in the top 15. Had Rodgers stayed healthy, their first-round pick would have gone to the Packers, so there is a silver lining in the Rodgers injury. This isn’t a playoff team, even with Rogers, mostly because their offensive line is horrible, their scheme is pedestrian, and we have overvalued their defense.
They are a good defensive unit—not elite. Their scheme is simple, their run defense is vulnerable, and even though their defensive front is good, they don’t create turnovers or cause the offense problems with their adjustments. When the Jets have faced an offense capable of scoring 20 or more points, they are 5-13 with Saleh and 6-5 in games against offenses that average under 20. If the Jets’ defense was elite, why aren’t they similar to the Browns? Cleveland wins with a backup quarterback, great defense, and timely adjustments. Wilson gets blamed for everything wrong with the Jets—which isn’t entirely the truth.
The Jets have other issues that will be exposed once Wilson isn’t the reason for their failures. Jets owner Woody Johnson went “all in” on this season, spending in the top three, along with the Browns and Texans, to make the run at the Super Bowl. When an owner spends this much money, he expects results, not excuses. Johnson knows the Browns are winning in a similar situation, which makes you wonder is he going to bring everyone back because Rodgers won’t want a coaching change? And where is his franchise once Rodgers retires? Fair questions that have short and long-term effects.
With all that being said, the Jets’ next seven games are important to their off-season plans and confidence in the coaching staff. They cannot continue to hide behind the Rodgers injury with the next three games at home against Miami, Atlanta, and Houston. They need to win games. They need to demonstrate this quarterback change is the right move, like Minnesota has done with the Cousins injury and how Cleveland reacted once Watson went down for the season. The market doesn’t believe the move to Boyle will help. I agree—it will get worse, and even though I don’t trust Miami’s offense in the cold and wind this week, there is no way I could trust the Jets to protect the ball against a good Miami defense. It’s an easy no play for me.
Rodgers coming back to save the season is another pipe dream. Why would he? Why would he risk further injury playing behind this offensive line? Is he trying to come back to save the staff? Maybe. Don’t do it, Aaron. There is no saving the Jets season now.
