Michael Lombardi—What’s wrong with the Jacksonville Jaguars?:

It wasn’t a fair fight. It was supposed to be one, yet by the middle of the first quarter, the Jacksonville Jaguars looked overmatched and outclassed as Buffalo dominated the Jags on Monday night. The game was far from owner Shad Kahn’s forecast. This past summer, Mr. Khan said, “Make no mistake: this is the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars, ever. Best players. Best coaches. But most importantly, let’s prove it by winning now.”  Those words didn’t age well. 

Mr. Kahn just gave Trevor Lawrence a boatload of his money. So far, that investment looks like another dud. Lawrence does not resemble the player I thought he would become in any of his four seasons under center. He has inadequate down-the-field passing playmaking skills. He looks lost and out of rhythm. Most of all, he hasn’t been able to win games, as he is 1-8 in his last nine starts. His last win was Week 11 of last season against the Texans. He is being paid as a franchise quarterback, yet he is light years away from being one. 

 

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Lawrence has thrown for 300 yards eight times and won six games. He has thrown for under 200 yards 15 times, winning only three. His consistency has been poor, making it uncertain to predict what kind of game Lawrence might play. Not seeing how Lawrence practices week to week, you can only assume he isn’t always on point, even when the practice is scripted for success. He looks lost in the offense, and it’s hard to determine what offense would suit him best.  

Then you have the Sam Darnold/Baker Mayfield issue to factor into Lawrence’s evaluation. When Darnold and Mayfield found the right coach and system, they looked like they belonged as first-round picks. Before that, they didn’t.  Is Lawrence’s poor play related to his coaching or the team around him? Most believed hiring Doug Pederson would be Lawrence’s lifeline after the ugly Urban Meyer experiment. So far, there has been little improvement in Pederson’s offensive approach. 

One of the biggest issues is believing Lawrence is the lifesaver of the franchise. Even though many of us (me included) thought of him as a generational talent, Lawrence has proven over his time, he cannot lead this generation or the next one.  Like other quarterbacks, Lawrence needs a run game. He needs more play-action and a physical team—something the Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t. He is playing without confidence, great fundamentals or techniques. He sprays the ball all over, and his expected completion percentage falls below expectations. He seems unable to make the easy throws, and his numbers are trending near the Bryce Young/Anthony Richardson area—which isn’t good. 

There is no turning back on Lawrence.  Once the team gave him this huge deal, they committed themselves for the next three years. They are expecting Pederson to fix the problem—which so far he hasn’t been able to accomplish. One of the reasons (not excuses) for the Jags’ problems is their offensive line. They have allowed 12 sacks in three games, in part because they are always playing from behind.  In three games, 54-23 is their first-half point differential. Their line can’t consistently pass protect in a drop-back game, and they have only called 64 run plays in three games. Now, last night, they were out of the game quickly, but for the most part, Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are two of the best players on the Jags. They need to get a more physical temperament and try to take the burden of the offense away from Lawrence. But the offense is more finesse than power, as they would rather run a reverse to get one yard than punch their opponent in the mouth. 

The Jags were like many current NFL teams that feel all their problems relate to adding more skill players instead of improving their offensive line. Both tackles, Anton Harrison and Cam Robinson, are below-the-line players who struggle to protect or get movement at the tackle position. Their guard play is even worse—as both Ezra Cleveland and Brandon Scherff are not playing their best ball. Scherff was once a dominating lineman, but injuries and age have taken their toll. Not controlling the line of scrimmage creates problems for their offense, forcing them to rely on Lawrence to be precise with the ball, which hasn’t been his strength. 

Then, their defense struggles to rush the passer and create negative plays or put pressure on the passer.  They are 32nd in forcing turnovers. The Jaguars haven’t forced one in three games. They’re 30th in yards allowed, and Josh Hines Allen and Trevon Walker have combined for three sacks and seven quarterback hits in three games. The Jags have invested in their defensive line by adding former 49ers defensive tackle Arik Armstead. Yet he, along with their other front seven players, haven’t been able to affect the game or create disruption. With no ability to turn the ball over, no ability to create big plays, and a lack of toughness to win the fourth quarter, the Jags are not good enough.

For me, the fourth quarter of close games reveals the true power rating of a team. If a team is behind and must throw the ball when the opponent knows they need to throw and is successful, they are good. The same thing applies to the run game and the defense. Conversely, if a team is winning and can control the ball, keeping their opponent off the field, they are for real. The Jaguars cannot handle either of these situations. When the chips are down, the Jags are unable to close games out or come from behind. This leads me back to Mr. Kahn’s evaluation of his team. He isn’t right. The Jags of the Tom Coughlin era were more talented, better coached, and way tougher. 

I am not making excuses for Lawrence, but he isn’t the only reason the Jags have fallen short. If they lose to Houston, their season is over, and the Doug Pederson watch will begin. 

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