New England Patriots 2024 Predictions and Odds:

New England begins another era at quarterback this season after selecting Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 draft. How much he plays remains to be seen, but what is not in question is how much this team will struggle. Jerod Mayo is now the head coach and the roster is devoid of talent. This has all the makings of a rough season for the once-proud franchise.

Offense

Last season, New England finished 31st in offensive EPA (-0.189) and scoring (13.9) and 29th in yards per play (4.6). There is little reason to believe this team will improve greatly in those categories in 2024. Alex Van Pelt comes in from Cleveland to fill the offensive coordinator role. If he brings a similar offense to the Browns, the Patriots could take a step forward. But realistically that step will be a small one.

 

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The biggest issue for the Patriots is a roster devoid of talent at the skill positions. Demario Douglas – 49 receptions, 561 yards – is the team’s leading returner at receiver. Douglas was a sixth-round rookie out of Liberty last season. New England might have a productive pass-catcher in Douglas, but he cannot be your most talented wideout. Kendrick Bourne and JuJu Smith-Schuster return, but both had less than 500 yards last season.

Rhamondre Stevenson is the Patriots’ best offensive player. He has totaled 2,318 yards from scrimmage over the last two seasons and averaged 4.9 yards per touch for his career. In Van Pelt’s new system, Stevenson could thrive. The offensive linemen in front of him are sturdy as well, with four on the roster ranking 27th or higher in PFF offensive grade.

Quarterback is going to be fascinating. Does Maye start right away or does Jacoby Brissett take New England through the regular season while the rookie develops? Either way, average quarterback play, at best, can be expected for a team lacking offensive firepower.

Defense

The biggest misconception about Bill Belichick is that he cannot coach any longer. Belichick schemed New England to top 10 finishes in defensive EPA each of the last two seasons. Jerod Mayo is a former defensive player, but can he have the same effect on this unit?

Defensive line should be a strength for the Patriots due to the talent inside. Christian Barmore was the eighth-ranked interior defender by PFF last season. He totaled 49 pressures last season, tied for 17th among interior linemen. But, Barmore is the lone top-tier player up front. The others at the position that played over 300 snaps last season – Keion White, Anfernee Jennings, among others – graded out as below average linemen.

Defensive back should be a position of strength if Christian Gonzalez returns from injury and progresses the way New England hopes. He is playing alongside Jonathan Jones, who has been a solid corner throughout his tenure with the Patriots. Behind them is Jabrill Peppers, who has thrived since joining New England in 2022. But it is fair to ask how much of his production was a byproduct of the coach who is no longer there.

Regardless, there is enough on this side of the ball that the Patriots should be an above-average defensive team. What remains to be seen is whether they can achieve the same way they did under Belichick in his time at the helm.

Overlook

Outside of a solid defense, there isn’t much to be positive about for the New England Patriots. The quarterback position is a question, and a rookie will likely be playing at some point this season. The Patriots’ schedule is also one of the hardest in the league. They rank 31st in strength of schedule using projected win totals. The team projects to be an underdog in every game this season. Unless Maye is a reincarnation of Andrew Luck, it’s hard to see this team not finishing in the bottom five again this season.

New England Patriots Pick: Under 4.5 Wins

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