New Orleans Saints 2024 Predictions and Odds:

New Orleans parted ways with a few key pieces this year, but otherwise should return the majority of production from 2023 and added a few impact pieces along the way. Despite going 9-8 last year, I feel like this is a team that most casual fans might perceive as “down.” I don’t think that’s the case and neither does the TSI, which has them solidly in the middle of the pack at 17th in the NFL from a power rating standpoint. 

This isn’t the Drew Brees era, but this team is capable of putting some Ws on the schedule. 

 

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Offense

New Orleans was 14th in EPA/play and 17th in offensive success rate a year ago. The offensive line has been shaky at times, which has obviously hindered the ability to fully maximize downfield weapon Chris Olave, but adding swingman lineman Taliese Fuaga to the mix should help solidify the line, particularly on the interior, so then it’s just a matter of whether the tackles can hold up week-to-week for Derek Carr. A task made tougher by the loss of Andrus Peat.

Alvin Kamara is still a good running back who’s capable of running and catching out of the backfield, amassing roughly 1,200 yards of total offense last season. I think this offense has a high floor and a high ceiling, the question is whether or not Carr will have time to really get the downfield passing game clicking in 2024 under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Defense

The Saints’ defense was outstanding last year, ranking fifth and third in opponent EPA/play and success rate, respectively, and will now add in some potential difference-makers with Willie Gay, Kool-Aid McKinstry and Chase Young. I think this group could be very good in 2024 and will keep the overall floor of the team relatively high, especially in a weak division.

The lone big loss is S Marcus Maye, as second-year DC Joe Woods looks to build off last year’s strong performance.

Outlook

This team is certainly not one of the most talented in the league, but I do think they have enough veteran presence and reliability down-to-down and week-to-week that their floor is definitely a middle-tier team. I would be surprised if this team only won like five games; however, I also don’t exactly know how high the ceiling is overall, so I think they’re probably in the 7-9 win range, which should be good enough to contend for the division and a playoff spot. 

The Over/Under being 7.5 seems about right, as TSI projects around 8.5 wins for the New Orleans Saints and they also have the second-easiest schedule in the league. The Over is juiced to -120, but I think that’s probably worth a look.

New Orleans Saints Pick: Over 7.5 Wins

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