Four quarterbacks were selected with the NFL Draft’s top 10 picks in 2018, and Josh Allen is the only one to reach the Pro Bowl. Despite his ups and downs, Allen has developed into an invaluable asset for Buffalo.
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Allen was picked after Baker Mayfield (first overall) and Sam Darnold (third) and before Josh Rosen (10th). The quarterbacks from Oklahoma, USC and UCLA, respectively, pale in comparison to the gunslinging cowboy from Wyoming.
A year ago, Allen had the Bills perched as Super Bowl favorites. Three weeks into this season, Buffalo is not even the hottest team in its division. The hype surrounding the high-flying Dolphins is off the hook after Miami dropped 70 points on the Denver defense. The betting public has been paid off by backing the Dolphins three weeks in a row.
The stage is set Sunday in Buffalo for a “Show ‘em who’s boss game," as VSiN analyst Wes Reynolds likes to say. The Bills surely want to make the statement that they remain the team to beat in the AFC East.
Allen is usually at his best in this rivalry. In 10 career starts against Miami, Allen has led Buffalo to an 8-2 record while passing for 27 touchdowns and rushing for four scores. In the past eight meetings, the Bills averaged 33.4 points.
There are two sides to every argument, of course, and this is the most dangerous Dolphins team in recent memory, and Vic Fangio was not the Miami defensive coordinator in any of the previous meetings. Fangio was a flop as a head coach, but he’s a genius at designing defenses.
The teams met in Buffalo twice last season, including a playoff game, and the Bills emerged with 32-29 and 34-31 wins. The point spread was much higher (-7 and -13.5) in those two games than it is this week.
Allen has rebounded from his awful season-opening showing against the Jets when he threw three interceptions in a loss. He totaled four touchdown passes and the Bills averaged 37.5 points in victories over the Raiders and Commanders.
The Buffalo defense ranks No. 2 in the NFL in yards allowed (253 per game) and scoring (11.7 ppg). This is not to predict the Bills will shut down Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the Miami offense, but the home favorite has the superior defense, and Allen is more than capable of winning a shootout if needed.
With the line pinballing from 2.5 to 3, it’s obvious the Dolphins’ market price is peaking, and the Bills are available at a discount.
Pick: Bills -2.5.
The five sides in this column went 3-1-1 last week. My Teaser of the Week play is 2-1 after the Jaguars -2/Steelers +8.5 went down in Week 3 because of Jacksonville’s lopsided loss. I’m on the Bills to beat Miami, but it’s probably going to be tight, so I’ll pair the Dolphins +9 with the Titans +8.5.
Four more plays for Week 4 (home team in CAPS):
Ravens (+2) over BROWNS — A shoulder injury could sideline Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson, who’s questionable to play, and his backup is Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I’m no fan of Watson, but there is a significant drop-off to the rookie when facing the Baltimore defense. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has something to prove after a poor performance last week, and coach John Harbaugh is a better bet as an underdog. The Browns rank No. 1 in the league in yards allowed (163.7 per game) and scoring (10.7 ppg), and their defense has truly allowed only 18 points in three games — Watson gave up 14 himself on a fumble-return TD and pick-six. The smartest way to play this game is probably Under the total of 39.5.
Steelers (-2.5) over TEXANS — Houston rookie CJ Stroud is off to a nice start, passing for 906 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions in three games. He has not had NFL sack leader TJ Watt and the Pittsburgh pass rush in his face yet. The Steelers typically find ways to win these types of games, despite some of their offensive shortcomings, and the Texans still have a lot to learn.
Patriots (+6.5) over COWBOYS — A dominant Dallas defense that allowed a total of 10 points through two weeks was humbled in a 28-16 loss at Arizona. The Cowboys’ biggest problem is quarterback Dak Prescott failing to produce touchdowns in the red zone. Bill Belichick’s defense was impressive against the Eagles, Dolphins and Jets. New England ranks fifth in total defense (270.3 YPG). The Patriots’ patchwork offensive line has been a problem, but the line is in better health this week, so the running attack and quarterback Mac Jones should benefit.
JETS (+9) over Chiefs — The negativity in New York surrounding a 1-2 team and quarterback Zach Wilson means this could be the right time to bet the Jets. Buy on bad news. Wilson is surrounded by enough weapons to move the ball against the Kansas City defense. The public will be all over Patrick Mahomes, Taylor Swift and the road favorite. This is a contrarian play.
