NFL Player Prop Bets Week 7:

The NFL train keeps chugging down the track, even though some passengers get left behind. Injuries are inevitable and the ones to skill-position players seem to ramp up in frequency with each passing season. It can be very hard on fantasy football players who have to scour the waiver wire for the best options, but it can help us a little bit when it comes to the player prop markets.

Doing a little bit of extra digging to see who might benefit from an injury or if an injury is really as bad as it seems can be the difference between winning and losing player wagers. Game state, weather, and several other factors come into play. We’ve got another round of games to think about and more player prop lines to analyze, so let’s do it.

 

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Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 7

Tony Pollard (TEN) Over 3.5 Receptions (-120), Over 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

Pollard is tracking towards his highest snap share of the season with Tyjae Spears on the injured report due to a hamstring problem. The Bills have allowed the most targets to running backs (50), most receiving yards (368), and are tied for the most receiving touchdowns (3). Pollard has only gone over this receptions number once, but the game state would suggest that the Titans trail throughout this game and will need to throw the football.

Also, it surely appears like teams are actively trying to work running back receptions into the mix against the Bills with how high the target share actually is. Game state does matter because the Bills have had some nice leads in games, and that’s exactly what the betting market expects them to have here. I think Pollard gets a ton of touches and I do like this Titans offensive line, despite their 1-4 record.

Pollard’s Rushing + Receiving Yards prop is 90.5, a number he’s gone over three times while giving up 30-40% of the snaps to Spears. My only worry here is whether or not the Titans get enough offensive plays for Pollard to get the workload, but the defense has been pretty good this season and could force some Buffalo punts. Obviously there’s some correlation in these two props as well.

Josh Allen Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

Allen has gone over this number twice. One was against Houston in a 23-20 loss where he only completed nine passes. The other was the 47-10 win over Jacksonville that seemed like an attempt to get him more comfortable and have more rapport with his receivers.

The Bills are tied for 21st in plays per drive this season and 24th in third-down conversion rate. And as bad as the Titans are, their defense has been quite good. James Cook is expected to play, so that will produce more balance for the Bills, who have run the fewest plays of any team with six games played. They’re just not in a hurry at all. I get that Amari Cooper might help, but they just haven’t had much urgency and it’s worked, as they’re off to a solid 4-2 start. I don’t see them pushing the envelope any more this week.

Also, as I mentioned with the Pollard props above, the game state suggests that Buffalo will be ahead and that may end up limiting the passing plays for Allen.

David Montgomery (DET) Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

Montgomery’s rush attempts by game have gone 17, 11, 23, 12, and 12, so he has only gone over this number twice. But, let’s consider the two games in which he went over. The Lions beat the Rams 26-20 in overtime in Week 1 and then beat Arizona 20-13 in Week 3. In close games, Montgomery has gotten more work, with the exception of that Tampa Bay game where the Lions threw 56 times. Interestingly, Montgomery has only topped Jahmyr Gibbs in snap share one time in five games this season, but he has 75 carries compared to 66 for his timeshare partner.

When Montgomery is on the field, he gets a rushing attempt 54.7% of the time. When Gibbs is on the field, he gets a rush attempt 36.2% of the time. I don’t think we see Detroit flip that script here, though it would be a good wrinkle against Brian Flores’ defense. The Vikings are third in Rush EPA on defense, so they’ve done well against the run, but this is the top rush unit by offensive EPA and clearly the best run unit the Vikings have faced.

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