NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Let’s take a look at my NFL Week 4 picks and predictions:

 

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Jacksonville at Houston (-6; 44.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Jacksonville was embarrassed on Monday Night in Buffalo and are one of only three winless teams remaining in the NFL.

Nevertheless, the market has come in on the Jaguars (I personally played 7 earlier in the week; it was +3.5 during the summer) largely due to the Houston offensive struggles. The Texans are just 31st in early down success rate and 29th in EPA/play and are clearly missing Joe Mixon (questionable for Sunday) in the running game. 

In addition, CJ Stroud is starting to regress in the turnover department, having thrown two picks last week. He had the fewest interceptions of any signal caller with 400+ dropbacks last season, but he ranked only 11th out of 25 such quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate, per PFF. In Week 1, only Kirk Cousins and Jalen Hurts had a higher rate of turnover-worthy throws than Stroud. There looks to be more turnover regression coming for last year’s Rookie of the Year.

Per our Steve Makinen:

NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3-points or more, going 8-19-2 SU but 20-8-1 ATS (71.4%) in their last 29 tries.

NFL Week 4 Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +6

Buffalo at Baltimore (-2.5; 46.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Over the summer, Buffalo might have been the ignored team in the AFC East as there were a cacophony of voices stating that the Bills window may have closed. Now the Bills have started 3-0 and Josh Allen is the shortest price for NFL MVP at +225. However, the Bills have defeated Arizona, Miami, and Jacksonville, who have a combined record of 2-7.

Despite a shaky 1-2 start, Baltimore is a step up in class and an opportunity to sell Buffalo at the top of the market.

While the Ravens have struggled defensively without Mike Macdonald (24th in pass defense EPA and 23rd in PFF’s coverage grades), Buffalo could have some struggles this week defensively without LBs Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, plus slot corner Taron Johnson. Baltimore should have success running the ball in this one.

Meanwhile, the Ravens do lead the league at stopping the run only allowing 50 ypg. Unlike Jacksonville, who were without three corners, Baltimore will play some zone.

This is also a historically great spot for Lamar Jackson as he is now 23-7 ATS as a favorite of three or less or as an underdog.

NFL Week 4 Pick: Baltimore Ravens ML -130

TOTAL OF THE WEEK:
New Orleans/Atlanta Under 42

TEASER OF THE WEEK:
Jets -1.5/Colts +8.5

For more NFL Week 4 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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