Schein 9 NFL Week 11:

I’m going to assume this is intentional. 

Rivalry week in the NFL is upon us and it’s amazing. I’m obsessed. Basically every game is a current or historic rivalry, which throws a fun wrench into picking games.

 

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My son Theo, who won 3 more bucks getting 151 points in DFS on DraftKings, seems unfazed.

He did seem fazed by my wife’s reaction when she asked him to work on his reading homework Tuesday night, and he responded with, “Mom, I have to get my early DFS lineup in; it’s all that matters.”

Great moment in parenting. 

He’s sitting next to me (doing his reading with Knicks / Sixers on mute) and wants you to know he loves the Bills laying 2.5 this week in the biggest game of the season.

Here are our midweek musings, Schein 9 style

1. Game of the Year

Bills! Chiefs! In Buffalo! Allen! Mahomes! Let’s go! In theory, it sells itself, but the nuggets attached to this AFC showdown are off the charts. The Chiefs (9-0) and Bills (8-2) have the best combined record (17-2) entering a game in Week 11 or later since Chiefs/Rams in 2018. And you remember that one where the Rams won 54-51, the only game in NFL history where both teams scored 50 or more points. 

The Chiefs are undefeated, but totally charmed. I cannot believe they stayed perfect by blocking a Wil Lutz 35 yard field goal that would’ve given Denver the win. KC is battle-tested and they pounce on breaks and bad play by the opposition, just like they did in Buffalo in the divisional round of the playoffs when Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard field goal to tie within the final 2 minutes and Sean McDermott inexplicably called a fake punt with Damar Hamlin from the Bills own 30. These games between the two teams are always tremendous. Who can forget the all time divisional round game between the two teams in 2021, a game where McDermott not squibbing the kickoff in regulation with 13 seconds left will haunt the Bills fans forever. Remember, Allen threw for 329 yards and four touchdowns in that game.

I think the history matters here, in addition to the fluky nature of the Chiefs against Tampa, Cincinnati, Denver, and Atlanta. They easily could’ve lost all of those games. It’s a credit to them that they didn’t, but they are due. Allen is playing brilliant ball, protecting it incredibly well. I know what kind of killer Mahomes is an underdog. But I love the way the Bills didn’t succumb to the trap game in Indy. Buffalo is 8-2. They need this one for the playoff seeding and between the ears mentally to flip the script on KC being invincible. 

Josh Allen has had a vastly superior season compared to Patrick Mahomes by every measuring stick. I know the numbers of Mahomes as an underdog against the spread (12-1-1) and straight up (11-3) are just ridiculous. But so is Allen’s play. Allen has the most touchdowns per game in NFL history — just ahead of Mahomes. Mahomes is 4-3 in his career against Allen including 3-0 in the playoffs. So you can do the math on the regular season. Only three quarterbacks have three wins against Mahomes in his iconic career; Allen, Joe Burrow, and Tom Brady

I cannot wait for this game. Buffalo have two losses but are playing better football. Bills -2.5.

2. Kyler Enters 

My updated MVP rankings…

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Jared Goff

Jayden Daniels

Kyler Murray

Jackson is clearly my number 1. Allen is alone in 2nd. The headliner here is Murray’s jump. And it’s earned after he pitched the perfect game against the Jets, throwing just two incomplete passes and totaling three touchdowns. The Cardinals are in first place in the NFC West after 10 weeks. They have a true shot to win the division and make the playoffs. Both are major accomplishments and they deserve major praise for that. 

With that said…

3. Coach ‘Em Up

Oftentimes this becomes an award of overachievement. 

When you start looking at future bets, consider Mike Tomlin making the quarterback change. Consider the roster and attitude adjustment needed with the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh leading LA to the playoffs, which should happen. And the impact of a system and culture from Jonathan Gannon in Arizona. Gannon at +750 is very tasty. Catching up with Cardinals star tight end Trey McBride on my SiriusXM radio show on Tuesday, he raved about the culture under Gannon and the kind of high-character players they bring in. What Gannon and Harbaugh have done in terms of pure coaching has been off the charts impressive.

Which leads us to…

4. Charged Up

I am personally rooting for the Bengals to make the playoffs because I love watching Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase work. As previously stated, it’s known that Burrow can beat Mahomes and beat him in Arrowhead in the playoffs. It’s not an educated guess. But there’s been something off about the Bengals all year, from contract drama to bad losses, to inferior coaching. I loved Cincy +6 last week and hit. But Cincy should’ve won the game outright. Up 21-7, the Chase Brown fumble changed everything in Baltimore. And of course there were two missed non-calls when Zac Taylor rightly went for 2 to win in Baltimore.

But Jim Harbaugh is a vastly superior head coach compared to Taylor. Justin Herbert is back. Harbaugh called him,”Half man, half beast” this week and it’s funny because it’s true. Jesse Minter’s defense is flying around. The Bengals do way too many foolish things in the course of a game, unlike the Chargers who don’t beat themselves. Cincy is more desperate with an explosive passing attack. The line of Chargers -1.5 at home says to me that Vegas really isn’t sure what to do. I’ll take advantage of that and lay the points with LA.

5. “Raven” Mad

The Ravens were on the right side of history against the Bengals last Thursday, but wow was the Ravens defense exposed. Pittsburgh continued to prove me wrong all season when Russell Wilson threw a gorgeous moon ball to Mike Williams on 3rd-and-9 to take the lead late in Washington and hold on to win. This sets up a delicious game Sunday in Pittsburgh in the most intense and special rivalry in the NFL. I love the pure hate when it comes to Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The fans hate each other. The teams hate each other. The coaches and organizations loathe one another.

Lamar Jackson is super special and having an iconic season. The weapons for the Ravens are plentiful. Friendly reminder this is Derrick Henry’s first installment of this rivalry and he’s built for it. Color me obsessed with it all, and the Ravens laying 3. 

6. Brock and Roll

Perhaps the most underrated development of Week 10 was Brock Purdy’s domination in correlation with the “Return of the Mac”, Christian McCaffrey. And there’s no coincidence. Purdy was also sensational in Seattle earlier this year and is 5-0 in his career against the Seahawks. Purdy has averaged 9.8 yards per attempt against the Seahawks, most by any active quarterback against one team in a minimum of five starts. 

On the flip side, the Seahawks have crumbled since their 3-0 start and Geno Smith is 0-5 against the Niners. The Niners beat the Bucs, but that game was way too close and Jake Moody missed way too many kicks (3!) before nailing the game winner from 44 yards out. Deebo Samuel wanted to fight the entire kicking operation! The Niners will take it all out of the Seahawks.

7. Let the Flus Loose

Shane Waldron got fired on Tuesday, just like we predicted Monday on Make it Rain with Adam Schein. The Washington debacle determined heads will roll. Losing to the Patriots at home was the nail in the coffin. The rankings, the feel, the post-bye ineptitude, turning Caleb Williams into a tentative player, just pick the reason why Waldron was canned. But this is like reshuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. Matt Eberflus should’ve never been retained after last year. They needed to start fresh, not waste Williams’ rookie season, and hire an offensive-minded head coach to pair with the special talent. This is a deep, well-embedded Bears problem for decades. They need a monster cleaning for Caleb and the amazing, suffering Bears fans.

8. Not Lion

Jared Goff – five picks and a win. The resilience of this Lions team and ability to win any style of fight is uncanny. I know the Chiefs haven’t lost. Detroit is the best team in the NFL bar none. I hope you got in a few weeks ago on Lions to win the Super Bowl. But how ‘bout the unique odds matchup, like Bills and Lions to meet in New Orleans?

9. Send Help

The Jets are dead. Really dead this time. Arizona finished them. 31-6 was the most lopsided game of the year. The Jets had the fewest points and yards of any team this season. So… congrats?

Somehow, the Jets are favored against the Colts. Remember when Joe Flacco was the Jets quarterback under Robert Saleh? Remember when the Jets beat the Colts in the Super Bowl? Remember I loved the Jets preseason?

I can’t quit.

Gimme the Jets -3? I’m Ron Burgundy?

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