Tonight we kickoff NFL Week 12 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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8:15 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 36.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Steelers (8-2) have won five straight games and just upset the Ravens 18-16, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Browns (2-8) have lost two straight and just got rolled by the Saints 35-14, losing outright as 1-point road favorites.

This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and 81% of spread bets are laying the points with the Steelers. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Pittsburgh fall from -4.5 to -3.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Steelers to begin with? Because respected smart money has come down on the Browns plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog.

The Browns have notable “bet against the public” value, as they are only receiving 19% of spread bets at DraftKings and 15% of spread bets at Circa Sports in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs getting 3.5-points or more are 92-67 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2020. Cleveland has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Divisional dogs getting 3.5-points or more are 16-9 ATS (64%) this season. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 112-91 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2017. The Browns have buy-low value as a dog off a blowout loss against a sell-high favorite on a prolonged winning streak who just pulled off a big upset. Cleveland is also a buy-low “bad” ATS team (3-7) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (8-2). Mike Tomlin is excellent as a dog (61-31 ATS, 66%) but only 90-98 ATS (48%) as a favorite. Brad Allen, the lead ref, is 54% ATS to the home team, historically.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen a huge drop from 41.5 to 36.5. The under is only receiving 46% of bets but 62% of dollars at DraftKings, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Outdoor divisional unders are 241-197 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2021. Weather could also play a major role as the forecast calls for mid 30s with 15 MPH winds (gusts up to 30 MPH) and possibly some rain or even snow. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 258-196 (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2016.

Player Prop to Consider

Nick Chubb Under 52.5 rushing yards (-110): Chubb has gone under this number in all four games he has played this season. Chubb rushed for 50 yards on 11 carries last week against the Saints, which was a game played indoors against a New Orleans defense that ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed per game (134.5). Now Chubb will face a Steelers defense that is only giving up 90.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 4th best in the NFL. Footing could also be an issue that slows down Chubb, as the natural grass surface could get wet and muddy due to the precipitation.

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