Today we have a loaded NFL Week 4 Sunday slate with 13-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 41.5)

The Saints (2-1) just lost their first game of the season last week, falling to the Eagles 15-12 as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Falcons (1-2) just came up short against the Chiefs, losing 22-17 and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and they’re rushing to the window to play trendy dog New Orleans. However, despite 64% of spread bets backing the Saints we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Falcons -1 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Atlanta, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular side. The Falcons are only receiving 36% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 86-57 ATS (60%) to the home team, historically. Those looking to follow the sharp Falcons move but wary of laying points around a key number in what might end up being a close game could instead target Atlanta on the moneyline at -140.

1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 44.5)

The Vikings (3-0) just crushed the Texans 34-7, easily winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Packers (2-1) just dismissed the Titans 30-14, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering the undefeated Vikings to the tune of 68% of spread bets. However, despite Minnesota receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen this line completely flip to Packers -2.5. Some shops are even up to -3. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on the Packers, with pros backing the unpopular home team in a “fade the trendy dog” situational spot. Green Bay is only receiving 32% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. A big reason for the Packers line move is due to the fact that Jordan Love is expected to return under center after being injured at the end of the season opener. Once again, sharps looking to follow the sharp Packers move but wary of a close win not covering the number could instead play Green Bay on the moneyline at -145.

1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 47) at Carolina Panthers

The Bengals (0-3) just fell to the Commanders 38-33, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Panthers (1-2) just won their first game of the season, upsetting the Raiders 36-22 as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as high as a 7-poont road favorite. The public sees a “get right” spot for the struggling Bengals and 71% of spread bets are laying the points with Cincinnati. However, despite the Bengals receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Cincinnati fall from -7 to -4.5. Essentially, all movement and liability is on Carolina plus the points despite the Panthers being the unpopular play. Dogs getting 4.5-points or more are 16-6 ATS (73%) this season. Andy Dalton is 46-35 ATS (57%) as a dog in his career, including 1-0 ATS this season. Carolina enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Panthers played on Sunday while the Bengals played on Monday night and now must travel on a short week. The Panthers are also in a prime “Wong Teaser” spot (+4.5 to +10.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has risen from 45.5 to 47. The over is receiving 57% of bets but 65% of money, indicating slight public support but also respected over smart money.

4:05 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 49.5)

The Commanders (2-1) just took down the Bengals 38-33, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Cardinals (1-2) just came up short against the Lions 20-13, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even 50/50 spread bet split, we’ve seen Arizona fall from -4.5 to -3.5. And several shops are juicing up Commanders +3.5 (-115), signaling a possible game day drop down to 3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even, as theoretically the oddsmakers have balanced action and no reason to adjust the number. So, based on the line move we can infer that the respected pro money is grabbing road dog Washington plus the points. Road dogs are 20-14 ATS (59%) this season and 523-439 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Dogs that are +3.5 or more are 18-10 ATS (64%) with a 23% ROI this season. The Commanders are also a “dog who can score” system match (26.3 PPG, 5th), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering late. Kyler Murray is just 6-11 ATS (35%) in his career as a home favorite.

8:20 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 46.5)

The Bills (3-0) just demolished the Jaguars 47-10, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Ravens (1-2) just earned their first win of the season, taking down the Cowboys 28-25 as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public can’t believe the undefeated Bills are catching points and 63% of spread bets are backing Buffalo. However, despite the majority of bets taking the Bills we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Baltimore -1.5 to -2.5. Several shops are juicing up Baltimore -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible game day move up to -3. Why would the oddsmakers be handing out a better number to the public when they’re already sweating Buffalo to begin with? Because respected pro money is selling high on the trendy dog Bills and instead backing the unpopular home favorite. The Ravens offer notable contrarian value, as they are a rare favorite receiving only 37% of spread bets in a heavily bet Sunday Night Football primetime showdown. Baltimore is only receiving 37% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split which is further evidence of wiseguys playing the home team. Those looking to “bet against the public,” follow the sharp Baltimore move but also protect themselves in what might be a close game could elect to play the Ravens on the moneyline at -135. Baltimore also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Ravens played on Sunday while the Bills played on Monday night and now must travel on a short week.

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